---
title: "Why did Avalanche drop 8.0% on October 29, 2026?"
language: en
canonical: "https://whycoinmoves.com/en/coins/avalanche-2/2026-10-29"
date: 2026-10-29
---

# Why did Avalanche drop 8.0% on October 29, 2026?

Aave’s freeze of Avalanche lending markets after a reported large unauthorized outflow is a plausible source of concern during the fall, but the evidence does not establish its contribution. No market-positioning data clearly explains the move. On October 29, 2026 (UTC), AVAX went from about $9.00 to $8.28 (-8.03%) on OKX · USDT, trading between $8.25 and $9.08. AVAX largely moved with the market. AVAX fell further than this on 1 of the past 29 days. No AVAX report was collected from the day before to the day after; the cause is unresolved. Since 2020-09-22, AVAX has fallen 7% or more in a UTC day 100 times on Gate · USDT daily closes, counting moves within 7 days of each other once. Seven days later it was higher in 42 of 100 cases, with a median change of -1.62%. This is history, not a forecast.

## What may be driving the move

Aave’s freeze of Avalanche lending markets after a reported large unauthorized outflow is a plausible source of concern during the fall, but the evidence does not establish its contribution. No market-positioning data clearly explains the move.

- trigger · medium: A report published Oct 29, 15:09 UTC said Aave froze its Avalanche markets to prevent a suspected hacker from using stolen AVAX as collateral, after funds reportedly moved across chains. Concern about the incident could have weighed on AVAX.
  Evidence gap: The report does not establish when the freeze occurred or when traders learned of it; no link to actual AVAX selling or the fall’s onset is shown.
  Sources: [S12](<https://cryptobriefing.com/aave-freezes-avalanche-markets-binance-hacker/>)

- amplifier · low: Positive funding alongside a 2.97% increase in open interest and a slightly lower buyer-initiated volume share is consistent with derivatives-market activity that could have amplified selling.
  Evidence gap: These figures do not establish trader direction, liquidations, crowded positions, or that derivatives activity amplified the fall.
  Sources: [S5](<https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history?instId=AVAX-USDT-SWAP&limit=8>), [S7](<https://www.okx.com/api/v5/rubik/stat/contracts/open-interest-history?instId=AVAX-USDT-SWAP&period=1H&limit=26>), [S8](<https://www.okx.com/api/v5/rubik/stat/taker-volume-contract?instId=AVAX-USDT-SWAP&period=1H&limit=50>)

Open question: Did the reported outflow and lending-market freeze trigger selling, and when did that news reach traders?

Analysis generated: 2026-10-30T00:29:16.000Z; evidence window: 2026-10-29T00:28:57.000Z → 2026-10-30T00:28:57.000Z.

- Day open / close: $9.00 → $8.28 (24 hourly candles, OKX · USDT)
- Day range: $8.25 – $9.08
- Versus Bitcoin: -8.03% / BTC -4.11%; 24 hours to Oct 30, 2026, 00:00 UTC; the headline uses the live price. About -1.0 points of the move is its own after allowing for Bitcoin
- Versus the past month: 1 of the past 29 days fell further; -8.03% in the 24 hours to Oct 30, 2026, 00:00 UTC, 4.3× a typical day (1.9%).
- 30-day range: 29.4% below the high · 0.4% above the low; From hourly highs and lows on the same venue
- Other tracked coins: 23 of 26 others also fell 2.7% or more; 2 rose that much
- 24h volume: 0.8×; of its prior 30-day daily average
- Perpetual swap: funding near zero · open interest rising; OKX perpetual swap AVAX-USDT-SWAP

Computed from OKX · USDT hourly candles for the 24 hours to Oct 30, 2026, 00:00 UTC.

## AVAX timeline around October 29, 2026

Largest closed hourly move: -5.54%, Oct 29, 2026, 20:00–21:00 (UTC).


## How often has this happened before?

Since 2020-09-22, AVAX has fallen 7% or more in a UTC day 100 times on Gate · USDT daily closes, counting moves within 7 days of each other once. Seven days later it was higher in 42 of 100 cases, with a median change of -1.62%. This is history, not a forecast.

| After the move | Cases | Higher | Median change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Next day | 100 | 55 | +0.63% |
| 7 days later | 100 | 42 | -1.62% |
| 30 days later | 99 | 46 | -1.99% |

Episodes: 2026-10-08, 2026-09-23, 2026-06-02, 2026-02-05, 2026-01-29, 2025-12-05, 2025-10-30, 2025-10-07, 2025-09-25, 2025-08-25 (UTC)

One venue’s daily closes, before costs; the coin’s own survived history, so it says nothing about coins that no longer trade. Past episodes are not a forecast.

Prices, market readings and reports are shown side by side; timing alone does not show what caused a move.

## Same-day movers · 2026-10-29 (UTC)

- [Quack AI (Q) -29.02%](<https://whycoinmoves.com/en/coins/quack-ai/2026-10-29>)
- [Pons (PONS) -21.29%](<https://whycoinmoves.com/en/coins/pons/2026-10-29>)
- [Ethena (ENA) -16.29%](<https://whycoinmoves.com/en/coins/ethena/2026-10-29>)
- [NEAR Protocol (NEAR) -14.24%](<https://whycoinmoves.com/en/coins/near/2026-10-29>)
- [Raydium (RAY) -12.52%](<https://whycoinmoves.com/en/coins/raydium/2026-10-29>)

[Avalanche (AVAX) price and news](<https://whycoinmoves.com/en/coins/avalanche-2>)
[Methods and limitations](<https://whycoinmoves.com/en/methodology>)