--- title: "Why did Raydium drop 12.5% on October 29, 2026?" language: en canonical: "https://whycoinmoves.com/en/coins/raydium/2026-10-29" date: 2026-10-29 --- # Why did Raydium drop 12.5% on October 29, 2026? No confirmed event explains the fall. Perpetual-market data offers a possible, but uncertain, amplification mechanism. On October 29, 2026 (UTC), RAY went from about $1.81 to $1.59 (-12.52%) on OKX · USDT, trading between $1.56 and $1.82. RAY largely moved with the market. This is RAY's largest 24-hour fall in 29 days. No RAY report was collected from the day before to the day after; the cause is unresolved. Since 2021-02-23, RAY has fallen 10% or more in a UTC day 56 times on Gate · USDT daily closes, counting moves within 7 days of each other once. Seven days later it was higher in 23 of 56 cases, with a median change of -2.67%. This is history, not a forecast. ## What may be driving the move No confirmed event explains the fall. Perpetual-market data offers a possible, but uncertain, amplification mechanism. - amplifier · low: Negative RAY perpetual funding at 08:00 UTC and again at Oct 30, 00:10 UTC is consistent with traders paying to hold short positions; this could have added downward pressure. Evidence gap: Funding does not establish net short positions or causation. Coin-denominated open interest rose, but its direction is unknown, while buyer-initiated volume share was slightly higher than in the previous 24 hours. Sources: [S5](), [S6]() Open question: Did bearish derivatives positioning amplify selling, or did it follow the fall? The available data does not establish what initiated the move. Analysis generated: 2026-10-30T00:11:09.000Z; evidence window: 2026-10-29T00:10:57.000Z → 2026-10-30T00:10:57.000Z. - Day open / close: $1.81 → $1.59 (24 hourly candles, OKX · USDT) - Day range: $1.56 – $1.82 - Versus the past month: Its largest 24h fall in 29 days; -12.52% in the 24 hours to Oct 30, 2026, 00:00 UTC, 4.3× a typical day (2.9%). - 30-day range: 38.4% below the high · 1.5% above the low; From hourly highs and lows on the same venue - 24h volume: 0.8×; of its prior 30-day daily average - Where it traded: Binance 15% · Raydium (CLMM) 12% · BTCC 7%; includes on-chain pools - Perpetual swap: funding strongly negative · open interest rising; OKX perpetual swap RAY-USDT-SWAP Computed from OKX · USDT hourly candles for the 24 hours to Oct 30, 2026, 00:00 UTC. ## RAY timeline around October 29, 2026 Largest closed hourly move: -4.95%, Oct 29, 2026, 06:00–07:00 (UTC). ## How often has this happened before? Since 2021-02-23, RAY has fallen 10% or more in a UTC day 56 times on Gate · USDT daily closes, counting moves within 7 days of each other once. Seven days later it was higher in 23 of 56 cases, with a median change of -2.67%. This is history, not a forecast. | After the move | Cases | Higher | Median change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next day | 56 | 26 | -0.77% | | 7 days later | 56 | 23 | -2.67% | | 30 days later | 55 | 17 | -17.70% | Episodes: 2026-10-12, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-13, 2026-01-31, 2025-11-03, 2025-10-10, 2025-05-30, 2025-04-06, 2025-03-20, 2025-03-03 (UTC) One venue’s daily closes, before costs; the coin’s own survived history, so it says nothing about coins that no longer trade. Past episodes are not a forecast. Prices, market readings and reports are shown side by side; timing alone does not show what caused a move. ## Same-day movers · 2026-10-29 (UTC) - [Quack AI (Q) -29.02%]() - [Pons (PONS) -21.29%]() - [Ethena (ENA) -16.29%]() - [NEAR Protocol (NEAR) -14.24%]() - [Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) -10.94%]() [Raydium (RAY) price and news]() [Methods and limitations]()