--- title: "CoinDesk says bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern dating to 2014" description: "CoinDesk reported that bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern that goes back to 2014, in its day-ahead look for Nov. 3, 2026." language: en canonical: "https://whycoinmoves.com/en/events/bitcoin-bitcoin-breaking-midterm-election-pattern-3a349f52ba6de8" published: 2026-11-03T12:31:57.000Z updated: 2026-11-03T13:32:59.000Z indexable: true --- # CoinDesk says bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern dating to 2014 CoinDesk reported that bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern that goes back to 2014, in its day-ahead look for Nov. 3, 2026. Attributed sources: [CoinDesk]() ## Key facts CoinDesk reported that bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern that goes back to 2014, in its day-ahead look for Nov. 3, 2026. Evidence strength: Single source, 1 publisher group(s) (CoinDesk). After site detection, observed returns were 5 minutes: +0.16% (Nov 3, 2026, 12:31 → Nov 3, 2026, 12:36, UTC; Gate · USDT); 1 hour: +0.56% (Nov 3, 2026, 12:31 → Nov 3, 2026, 13:31, UTC; Gate · USDT) In the preceding 30 days, the 99th percentile of absolute hourly returns was 1.23% (OKX · USDT; cutoff Nov 3, 2026, 12:31, UTC). ## Returns after site detection | Window | Return | BTC | Difference from BTC | Actual sampled interval (UTC) | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 minutes | +0.16% | +0.16% | 0.00 pts | Nov 3, 2026, 12:31 → Nov 3, 2026, 12:36 | Gate · USDT | | 1 hour | +0.56% | +0.56% | 0.00 pts | Nov 3, 2026, 12:31 → Nov 3, 2026, 13:31 | Gate · USDT | ## Historical hourly baseline | Metric | Value | | --- | --- | | Coverage | 100.0% (720/720) | | Median absolute hourly return | 0.15% | | 99th percentile of absolute hourly returns | 1.23% | | BTC beta | 1.00 | | Source / cutoff (UTC) | OKX · USDT / Nov 3, 2026, 12:31 | ## Claims and open questions - CoinDesk reported that bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern going back to 2014. - CoinDesk described the item as its day-ahead look for Nov. 3, 2026. - What specific price or trading behavior CoinDesk identifies as breaking the pre-2014 pattern would need the full article or an official market statement to confirm. - Which parties or data providers CoinDesk relies on to define the 2014 pattern is not specified in the available excerpt. ## Source evidence - [Bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern going back to 2014]() — CoinDesk; published Nov 3, 2026, 12:30; received Nov 3, 2026, 12:31 (UTC). ## Recent BTC events and market reactions - [Liquid Network says bitcoin reserves fully backed again after $320 million exploit]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 11:12 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (3 publishers) · Security · 5m -0.04% / 1h -0.13% - [Tether holds 150,000 bitcoin worth $11.5 billion, CEO Ardoino says]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 10:15 (UTC) · Single source (1 publisher) · General news · 5m -0.05% / 1h +0.26% - [Mercado Bitcoin pledges to cover all user losses after near $40 million hack]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 08:56 (UTC) · Single source (1 publisher) · Security · 5m +0.02% / 1h +0.52% - [Bitcoin chart signal flashes bearish momentum]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 08:50 (UTC) · Single source (1 publisher) · Market watch · 5m +0.10% / 1h +0.55% - [Mercado Bitcoin pauses withdrawals after $46 million security breach]() — Published Nov 2, 2026, 19:05 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (2 publishers) · Security · 5m 0.00% / 1h -0.08% - [Full coin archive]() ## Research for this archive - [Altcoin beta to Bitcoin: BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE hourly returns]() - [Will Bitcoin go back up? Every crash since 2011 and its recovery time]() - [Perpetual funding rates and annualized yield: a 2025 comparison]() - [Bitcoin halving and bull markets: evidence from four halvings]() Evidence levels describe source coverage, not the probability that a report is true. Price moves and their timing cannot establish a cause; minute samples show an observed interval and alert thresholds are heuristics. Explanations are model-assisted, with citations and figures checked. Source titles stay in their original language; full articles are not republished. [Methods and limitations]()