--- title: "JPMorgan Asset Management forecasts 10% annual bitcoin returns over next decade" description: "JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projects 10% annualized bitcoin returns over the next decade, with a bear case of -9.7% and a bull case of 17%, according to CoinDesk. The same report projects 7.5% and 7.7% for U.S. large- and small-cap equities and 5.5%…" language: en canonical: "https://whycoinmoves.com/en/events/bitcoin-jpmorgan-projects-bitcoin-outperform-us-c932dce1ad6a8d" published: 2026-10-20T08:59:05.000Z updated: 2026-10-20T14:44:02.000Z indexable: true --- # JPMorgan Asset Management forecasts 10% annual bitcoin returns over next decade JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projects 10% annualized bitcoin returns over the next decade, with a bear case of -9.7% and a bull case of 17%, according to CoinDesk. The same report projects 7.5% and 7.7% for U.S. large- and small-cap equities and 5.5%… Attributed sources: [Cointelegraph](), [CoinDesk]() ## Key facts JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projects 10% annualized bitcoin returns over the next decade, with a bear case of -9.7% and a bull case of 17%, according to CoinDesk. The same report projects 7.5% and 7.7% for U.S. large- and small-cap equities and 5.5% for gold. The bank said volatility and unstable correlations still limit bitcoin's role in portfolios. Evidence strength: Multiple publishers, 2 publisher group(s) (Cointelegraph, CoinDesk); this describes source coverage, not truth or causation. After site detection, observed returns were 5 minutes: -0.09% (20/10/2026, 08:59 → 20/10/2026, 09:04, UTC; OKX · USDT); 1 hour: -0.07% (20/10/2026, 08:59 → 20/10/2026, 09:59, UTC; OKX · USDT). Unlisted windows are unavailable. In the preceding 30 days, the 99th percentile of absolute hourly returns was 1.23% (OKX · USDT; cutoff 20/10/2026, 08:59, UTC). This hourly baseline is not directly comparable with a minute move. ## Returns after site detection | Window | Return | BTC | Difference from BTC | Actual sampled interval (UTC) | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 minutes | -0.09% | -0.09% | 0.00 pp | 20/10/2026, 08:59 → 20/10/2026, 09:04 | OKX · USDT | | 1 hour | -0.07% | -0.07% | 0.00 pp | 20/10/2026, 08:59 → 20/10/2026, 09:59 | OKX · USDT | | 24 hours | — | — | — | — | — | ## Historical hourly baseline | Metric | Value | | --- | --- | | Ready | true | | Coverage | 100.0% (720/720) | | Median absolute hourly return | 0.15% | | 99th percentile of absolute hourly returns | 1.23% | | BTC beta | 1.00 | | Source / cutoff (UTC) | OKX · USDT / 20/10/2026, 08:59 | ## Claims and open questions - CoinDesk reported that JPMorgan Asset Management set a base case of 10% annualized bitcoin returns, a bear case of -9.7% and a bull case of 17% in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. - According to CoinDesk, the report projects 5.6%-6.6% growth for U.S. bonds, 7.5% and 7.7% for U.S. large- and small-cap equities and 5.5% for gold. - Cointelegraph reported that JPMorgan included bitcoin in its long-term capital market outlook for the first time but warned that volatility and unstable correlations limit its portfolio role. - Whether JPMorgan Asset Management published the full return assumptions and methodology behind the 10% base case, -9.7% bear case and 17% bull case in a public document. - Whether the bank's view of bitcoin as a speculative asset and hedge against monetary easing is accompanied by any recommended portfolio allocation weight. - Whether any JPMorgan filing or official statement confirms the report figures beyond press coverage. ## Source evidence - [JPMorgan projects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks and gold over next decade]() — Cointelegraph; published 20/10/2026, 08:54; received 20/10/2026, 08:59 (UTC). - [JPMorgan sees 10% annual bitcoin returns, topping stocks, bonds and gold over next decade]() — CoinDesk; published 20/10/2026, 11:10; received 20/10/2026, 11:12 (UTC). ## Recent BTC events and market reactions - [FINMA approves Switzerland's first retail spot Bitcoin ETF]() — Published 20/10/2026, 12:15 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (2 publishers) · Regulation · 5m +0.20% / 1h +0.03% - [AnchorWatch opens Nevada trust company for bitcoin custody with fees capped at $10,000 a month]() — Published 19/10/2026, 22:28 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (2 publishers) · General news · 5m +0.11% / 1h +0.08% - [BlackRock files for buffer Bitcoin ETF as IBIT draws $665M in a day]() — Published 20/10/2026, 05:39 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (4 publishers) · Market watch · 1h -0.12% - [Strategy buys 267 bitcoin for $22.1 million and repurchases $193.1 million of STRC]() — Published 19/10/2026, 12:30 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (2 publishers) · General news · 1h -0.20% - [Strive buys 4,045 BTC for about $335 million as warrant exercises bring in $369 million]() — Published 19/10/2026, 21:46 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (2 publishers) · General news · 1h -0.27% - [Full coin archive]() ## Research for this archive - [CHZ and fan tokens: World Cup and EURO price performance]() - [Altcoin beta to Bitcoin: BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE hourly returns]() - [Perpetual funding rates and annualized yield: a 2025 comparison]() - [Bitcoin halving and bull markets: evidence from four halvings]() [Methods and limitations]() Publisher count is not independent evidence count. Price changes cannot verify news or prove causation.