--- title: "TD Cowen analyst says Democratic Congress would block CLARITY Act for two years" description: "TD Cowen Washington analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote in an election-day note to Bitcoin Magazine and clients that a Democratic sweep of Congress would end the…" language: en canonical: "https://whycoinmoves.com/en/events/bitcoin-td-cowen-democratic-congress-would-971efdb3fac341" published: 2026-11-03T17:41:06.000Z updated: 2026-11-03T17:48:00.000Z indexable: true --- # TD Cowen analyst says Democratic Congress would block CLARITY Act for two years TD Cowen Washington analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote in an election-day note to Bitcoin Magazine and clients that a Democratic sweep of Congress would end the… Attributed sources: [Bitcoin Magazine]() ## Key facts TD Cowen Washington analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote in an election-day note to Bitcoin Magazine and clients that a Democratic sweep of Congress would end the CLARITY Act's chances for two years and sour the political climate for crypto. The market structure bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on Sept. 15. Evidence strength: Single source, 1 publisher group(s) (Bitcoin Magazine). After site detection, observed returns were 5 minutes: -0.02% (Nov 3, 2026, 17:41 → Nov 3, 2026, 17:46, UTC; Gate · USDT) In the preceding 30 days, the 99th percentile of absolute hourly returns was 1.23% (OKX · USDT; cutoff Nov 3, 2026, 17:41, UTC). ## Returns after site detection | Window | Return | BTC | Difference from BTC | Actual sampled interval (UTC) | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 minutes | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.00 pts | Nov 3, 2026, 17:41 → Nov 3, 2026, 17:46 | Gate · USDT | ## Historical hourly baseline | Metric | Value | | --- | --- | | Coverage | 100.0% (720/720) | | Median absolute hourly return | 0.15% | | 99th percentile of absolute hourly returns | 1.23% | | BTC beta | 1.00 | | Source / cutoff (UTC) | OKX · USDT / Nov 3, 2026, 17:41 | ## Claims and open questions - TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg wrote that a Democratic sweep would kill the CLARITY Act for two years, saying "we do not expect the Clarity Act to pass over the next two years." - Seiberg wrote that Senate control is the bigger prize: a Democratic majority could block Trump's SEC and CFTC nominees and elevate Sen. Elizabeth Warren to chair the Banking Committee. - Whether the CLARITY Act will be reintroduced in a new Congress, and on what timeline, would need an official filing or statement from lawmakers. - Whether prediction-market odds cited in the note, such as Kalshi's 94% chance for Democrats, hold as results come in would need the final vote tally. ## Source evidence - [TD Cowen: Democratic Congress Would Sink CLARITY Act for Two Years]() — Bitcoin Magazine; published Nov 3, 2026, 17:39; received Nov 3, 2026, 17:41 (UTC). ## Recent BTC events and market reactions - [Binance says $6.34 billion hack began with fake job interview]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 16:44 (UTC) · Single source (1 publisher) · Security · 5m +0.06% / 1h +0.26% - [CoinDesk says bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern dating to 2014]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 12:30 (UTC) · Single source (1 publisher) · General news · 5m +0.16% / 1h +0.56% - [Liquid Network says bitcoin reserves fully backed again after $320 million exploit]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 11:12 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (3 publishers) · Security · 5m -0.04% / 1h -0.13% - [Tether CEO says company holds about 150,000 bitcoin worth $11.5 billion]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 10:15 (UTC) · Multiple publishers (2 publishers) · General news · 5m -0.05% / 1h +0.26% - [Mercado Bitcoin pledges to cover all user losses after near $40 million hack]() — Published Nov 3, 2026, 08:56 (UTC) · Single source (1 publisher) · Security · 5m +0.02% / 1h +0.52% - [Full coin archive]() ## Research for this archive - [Do Bitcoin ETF flows predict the price? 684 days of daily flows]() - [Bitcoin institutional adoption: CME, spot ETFs and SPY correlation]() - [XRP lawsuit and Ethereum ETFs: reading SEC filings and rulings]() - [Altcoin beta to Bitcoin: BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE hourly returns]() Evidence levels describe source coverage, not the probability that a report is true. Price moves and their timing cannot establish a cause; minute samples show an observed interval and alert thresholds are heuristics. Explanations are model-assisted, with citations and figures checked. Source titles stay in their original language; full articles are not republished. [Methods and limitations]()