{"slug":"announcement-timestamps-and-causality","reviewed":"2026-10-20","observationPeriod":"2026-10-07","kind":"empirical","sourceFingerprints":[{"label":"ann_all.json","sha256":"74d97568546162832366474a4d412535a136dc0fc1cb82fcb7ca48b564182045"}],"title":["Does crypto news move prices or follow them? A timestamp audit","加密新闻会滞后行情吗？3,109 条公告的时间戳审计"],"summary":["Does crypto news lag price moves? An audit of 3,109 OKX announcements explains publication dates, first-seen times and the limits of causal claims.","加密新闻是否滞后价格异动？通过 3,109 条 OKX 公告审计，解释发布时间、首次发现时间及消息归因的边界。"],"relatedCoins":[],"relatedTopics":["listing","regulation","security"],"table":{"caption":["Announcement archive audit snapshot, 7 October 2026","2026 年 10 月 7 日公告归档审计快照"],"columns":[["Audit item","审计项"],["Count","数量"]],"rows":[["Unique announcement URLs / 公告唯一 URL","3109"],["Announcement categories / 公告分类","11"],["pTime on 2023-03-03 UTC / pTime 位于该日","978"],["All other pTime dates / 其余日期","2131"]]},"figures":[],"methods":[{"heading":["A date cluster is a data-quality warning","集中日期是数据质量警报"],"paragraphs":[["We counted 3,109 distinct announcement URLs across 11 categories in a saved OKX announcement census. Of these, 978 have an API pTime falling on 3 March 2023 UTC: 31.46% of the census. The internal archive review associates this cluster with help-centre migration and finds earlier dates in article bodies. The count here is a fresh check of stored metadata, not a fresh verification of every original publication date.","我们核对已保存的 OKX 公告全集，11 个分类合计 3,109 个不同公告 URL。其中 978 条的 API pTime 落在 2023 年 3 月 3 日 UTC，占 31.46%。既有归档复核将这一集中现象与帮助中心迁移联系起来，并在正文中找到更早日期。本文重新核验的是保存的元数据数量，没有逐篇重新核验最初发布日期。"],["If old documents are aligned to a migration timestamp, a price study may attach them to the wrong market period. A date-only label creates another limit: it does not support a minute-precision comparison. An ambiguous timestamp should remain ambiguous rather than be assigned midnight and presented as exact.","把旧文档对齐到迁移时间，可能让价格研究关联到错误的市场阶段。只有日期、没有时分的标签还有另一层限制：它不支持分钟精度比较。不明确的时间应保留不确定性，不能填成零点后作为精确时间展示。"]]},{"heading":["Keep four clocks separate","分开四种时钟"],"paragraphs":[["Original publication time records when a publisher says a document appeared. First-seen time records when a particular collector obtained it. Effective time records when a listed action begins. Price observation time records when a market measurement was made. A listing notice, trading start and the site’s first detection can be separated by hours or days.","原始发布时间是发布方标记的文档出现时间；首次发现时间是某个采集器拿到文档的时间；生效时间是公告行动开始的时间；行情观察时间是市场测量发生的时间。上币公告、开放交易与本站首次发现，可能相隔数小时甚至数天。"],["A collector’s delay is not necessarily a media reporting delay. An edited article may preserve an earlier date, and a republished article may carry a later one. The audit trail should retain the URL, observed metadata, time zone, precision and revision evidence instead of collapsing these clocks into one field.","采集延迟不一定是媒体报道延迟。更新文章可能保留较早日期，转载文章可能带较晚日期。审计记录应保留 URL、当时元数据、时区、精度与修订证据，避免把这些时钟合并为一个字段。"]]},{"heading":["Why “nearby news” is not a causal finding","为什么“附近有新闻”不是因果发现"],"paragraphs":[["A report appearing before a move is compatible with causation, but also with anticipation, another shared catalyst or coincidence. A report appearing after a move may be reacting to prices. Timing is necessary evidence for many causal stories, but timing alone cannot choose among them.","报道早于涨跌，与消息造成影响相容，也与提前预期、共同催化因素或巧合相容。晚于涨跌的报道还可能是在回应行情。时序是许多因果解释的必要证据，但仅凭时序无法在这些解释中作出选择。"],["A defensible event study needs a fixed event definition, auditable time alignment, an explicit comparison market and handling for overlapping announcements. It must also distinguish one announcement affecting several assets from several independent announcements. Repeated windows around the same story do not create independent observations.","可信的事件研究需要固定事件定义、可审计的时间对齐、明确的比较市场，以及重叠公告处理。还须区分一条公告影响多个币与多条独立公告；围绕同一消息反复取窗口，并不会产生独立观测。"]]},{"heading":["What we can publish today","现在能公布什么"],"paragraphs":[["The census supports a concrete timestamp-quality finding. It does not support a statement that crypto news generally lags prices by a particular number of minutes, nor a return distribution after hacks, regulation or listings. Such estimates need separately validated event-level samples. On this site, post-detection returns describe observed market changes after collection, with missing windows left unavailable.","这份全集支持明确的时间戳质量发现，不支持“加密新闻普遍滞后行情多少分钟”的结论，也不支持安全事件、监管或上币后的收益分布。那些估计需要另行验证的事件级样本。本站发现后的收益描述采集后实际观察到的市场变化，缺失窗口保持不可用。"]]},{"heading":["Why can a crypto price move before the news appears?","为什么币价先涨跌，新闻才出现？"],"paragraphs":[["Possible explanations include earlier public information, anticipation, publication delays and collection delays. This archive audits timestamp quality; it does not estimate a typical news delay or identify the cause of every move.","可能原因包括更早的公开信息、提前预期、发布延迟与采集延迟。这份归档审计的是时间戳质量，没有估计新闻通常滞后多久，也没有识别每次涨跌的原因。"]]},{"heading":["Does nearby crypto news prove what caused a price move?","附近有加密新闻，就能证明涨跌原因吗？"],"paragraphs":[["No. Timing can support or weaken an explanation, but overlapping market information and uncertain publication times remain. The source’s publication time and the site’s first detection must stay distinct.","不能。时序可以增强或削弱某种解释，但同期其他信息与发布时间不确定性仍存在。来源发布时间和本站首次发现时间必须分开。"]]}],"limitations":["This is an audit of one saved announcement corpus, not a census of all exchange announcements or media coverage. A timestamp cluster is not, by itself, proof of its technical cause. No average reporting lag or causal price impact is estimated.","这是对一份保存公告全集的审计，不是所有交易所公告或媒体报道的全量统计。时间戳聚集本身也不能独立证明其技术原因。本文不估计平均报道滞后或因果价格影响。"],"sources":[{"title":["OKX announcement centre","OKX 公告中心"],"url":"https://www.okx.com/help/section/announcements-latest-announcements"}]}