{"slug":"token-unlocks-fdv-and-supply-schedule-claims","reviewed":"2026-10-20","observationPeriod":"2023-01-01/2026-09-23","kind":"empirical","sourceFingerprints":[{"label":"SUI OKX spot USDT hourly archive","sha256":"97ef3b34cc5699ffe1de7857c0c5a02779b29cb83835aa0c1ac9cef64ed8c6b2"},{"label":"SOL OKX spot USDT hourly archive","sha256":"9c967ccdec27c283451fd43160a33e3364badfa24726188146cf15cef7fb6878"},{"label":"Saved DefiLlama cliff-emission calendar","sha256":"ad4b5ebc6a8d1219807910a569aedf9d66539d297eea6e5a036097d711a8b33b"},{"label":"BTC OKX spot USDT hourly archive","sha256":"0c0f771524ac6ee31682afebee3e206ccc4293f082108d2f808bb164d63e28ab"}],"title":["Do token unlocks lower prices? SUI, SOL and high FDV claims","SUI、SOL 代币解锁会下跌吗？高 FDV 与流通量辨析"],"summary":["Examine SUI token unlock dates, SOL supply differences and fully diluted valuation (FDV). A 73-day BTC comparison does not establish inevitable price declines.","研究 SUI 代币解锁日期、SOL 供给差异与完全稀释估值 FDV；73 个配对日的相对 BTC 表现，不支持解锁必跌的断言。"],"relatedCoins":["sui","solana","bitcoin"],"relatedTopics":["market"],"table":{"caption":["Saved release calendar and complete UTC-day OKX spot prices","保存的释放日历与完整 UTC 日 OKX 现货价格"],"columns":[["Asset","币种"],["Calendar rows / dates","日历记录 / 日期"],["Matched dates N","配对日期 N"],["Above / below BTC","高于 / 低于 BTC"],["Median difference (pp)","差值中位数（百分点）"]],"rows":[["SUI","189 / 74","73","35 / 38","−0.1917"],["SOL","0 / 0","0","Unavailable / 不可用","—"]]},"figures":[],"methods":[{"heading":["The calendar is not a sales ledger","日历不是卖出账本"],"paragraphs":[["A scheduled release, an increase in freely circulating supply, a transfer to an exchange and a completed sale are distinct observations. The saved DefiLlama calendar groups releases by beneficiary categories, including public-sale, staking and noncirculating categories for SUI. Those entries cannot all be relabelled as insider selling. Multiple category entries on the same UTC date are counted as one calendar date in the price panel.","计划释放、可自由流通量增加、转入交易所与完成卖出，是不同观测。保存的 DefiLlama 日历按受益类别记录释放，SUI 中包含公开销售、质押和非流通等类别，不能全部改称内部人士卖出。同一 UTC 日期有多个类别记录时，价格表只计一个日历日期。"],["The archive is a saved schedule, not a point-in-time record of exactly what investors knew before each date. Later revisions and estimated timestamps can introduce hindsight. A calendar entry also does not prove that an onchain transfer occurred on that date. These qualifications prevent the panel from being interpreted as a test of an executable advance-information opportunity.","归档是一份保存的日程，不是逐日还原投资者当时已知内容的时点数据库。后续修订与估计时间可能引入事后信息；日历条目也不能证明当日实际发生链上转移。因此，不能将该表理解为对可执行提前交易机会的验证。"]]},{"heading":["SUI: relative performance goes in both directions","SUI：相对表现并非单向"],"paragraphs":[["From 1 January 2023 through 23 September 2026, SUI has 189 category entries across 74 UTC dates. Requiring a complete price day and matching OKX BTC/USDT leaves 73 dates, from 2 June 2023 through 1 September 2026. The unmatched date remains in the coverage account. Relative performance is positive on 35 dates and negative on 38; the median difference is −0.1917 percentage points.","在 2023 年至 2026 年 9 月 23 日的日历范围内，SUI 有 189 个类别条目，合并为 74 个 UTC 日期。要求完整价格日并配对 OKX BTC/USDT 后，保留 2023 年 6 月 2 日至 2026 年 9 月 1 日的 73 日；未配对日期仍保留在覆盖统计中。相对表现 35 日为正、38 日为负，差值中位数为 −0.1917 个百分点。"],["The observed differences range from −7.2339 to +5.4949 points. These are full UTC-day close-to-close differences from BTC, not abnormal returns from a fitted risk model or exact release-time reactions. No matched non-release control group, size adjustment or causal significance test has been completed. The table can reject an “every recorded date underperforms BTC” description of this sample; it cannot show that releases have no effect.","观测差值范围为 −7.2339 至 +5.4949 个百分点。这是完整 UTC 日收盘对收盘的相对 BTC 差值，不是拟合风险模型后的异常收益，也不是精确释放时点反应。本文没有完成非释放日配对对照、规模校正或因果显著性检验。表格可以否定对本样本“每个记录日都跑输 BTC”的描述，不能证明释放没有影响。"]]},{"heading":["Why SOL is not a substitute control","为什么不能用 SOL 补出对照组"],"paragraphs":[["The saved cliff calendar has no SOL entries within this observation period. That means no comparable SOL sample is available here; it does not mean SOL has no issuance or supply changes. Solana’s documentation describes inflationary issuance and locked stake accounts. Those mechanisms should not be treated as the same process as each SUI calendar category.","保存的悬崖式释放日历在该观察期间没有 SOL 条目，只说明这里没有可比 SOL 样本，不表示 SOL 没有增发或供给变化。Solana 文档分别说明通胀发行与锁定质押账户，这些机制不能直接视为 SUI 各日历类别的同一过程。"],["Sui’s official supply material describes a capped supply and a proposed release schedule whose deployment depends on ecosystem needs. Its staking documentation also distinguishes reward circulation from new circulating supply. A research comparison needs to preserve those definitions and the version of the schedule that was actually saved.","Sui 官方供给资料说明固定总量上限，以及与生态需求相关的拟定释放安排；质押文档还区分奖励流转和新增流通量。研究比较必须保留这些定义，以及当时实际保存的日历版本。"]]},{"heading":["FDV describes a supply valuation assumption","FDV 描述的是供给估值假设"],"paragraphs":[["FDV values a larger token supply at the current marginal token price. It is not the cash that could be raised by selling that supply, nor an entitlement to protocol revenue. Low circulating supply can make the headline comparison sensitive to definitions, but a high FDV alone does not specify when demand changes, who sells or how prices respond.","FDV 按当前边际代币价格对更大供给量估值，不是把这些代币卖出后能拿到的现金，也不代表拥有协议收入权。低流通会使估值比较对口径更敏感，但单独一个高 FDV 数字，不能确定需求何时变化、谁会卖出以及价格如何回应。"]]},{"heading":["Do token unlocks always make SUI prices fall?","SUI 代币解锁一定会让币价下跌吗？"],"paragraphs":[["That rule is not established. Among 73 matched SUI calendar dates, daily performance relative to BTC is positive on 35 and negative on 38. These are relative full-day observations, not counts of outright price gains and losses or verified sales.","没有确立这一规律。73 个可配对 SUI 日历日期中，全天相对 BTC 表现 35 日为正、38 日为负。这是相对表现，不是币价绝对涨跌日数，也不是已核验卖出记录。"]]},{"heading":["Does high FDV mean a token must crash after an unlock?","高 FDV 意味着代币解锁后必然暴跌吗？"],"paragraphs":[["No such conclusion follows from FDV alone. Fully diluted valuation uses the current marginal price to value a larger supply; it does not measure realizable sale proceeds, future demand or the amount actually sold. SUI and SOL supply mechanisms also differ.","仅凭 FDV 不能得出这一结论。完全稀释估值用当前边际价格对更大供给量估值，不能测量可实现卖出收入、未来需求或实际卖出量；SUI 与 SOL 的供给机制也不同。"]]}],"limitations":["One saved, revisable calendar and one spot venue; SUI categories are pooled by date, SOL is unavailable and actual releases are not independently verified. Full-day BTC differences are descriptive and do not identify a causal supply effect, a sell rule or future return.","单份可修订日历与单一现货交易所；SUI 类别按日期合并，SOL 样本不可用，实际释放尚未独立核验。全天相对 BTC 差值属于描述统计，不能识别供给因果影响、卖出规则或未来收益。"],"sources":[{"title":["DefiLlama emission-calendar source","DefiLlama 释放日历来源"],"url":"https://github.com/DefiLlama/emissions-adapters"},{"title":["Sui: token supply and release schedule","Sui：代币供给与释放日程"],"url":"https://www.sui.io/token-schedule"},{"title":["Sui: staking and circulating supply","Sui：质押与流通供给"],"url":"https://www.sui.io/blog/staking-sui-circulating-supply"},{"title":["Solana: staking, inflation and lockups","Solana：质押、通胀与锁定"],"url":"https://solana.com/staking"},{"title":["OKX historical candle documentation","OKX 历史 K 线文档"],"url":"https://www.okx.com/docs-v5/en/#rest-api-market-data-get-candlesticks-history"}]}