# Performance methodology

Source: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology

Returns are percentages of fixed capital, non-compounded. Zero return does not establish an empty position. Missing observations are unavailable, not zero. Sources: backtest, live, mixed, missing. Month-end drawdowns hide intra-month losses. Backtests are in-sample; past performance does not guarantee future results.

Data through: 2026-10. Last data update: 2026-11-04T01:05:07Z.

## Measurement and sources

Each strategy is measured independently as if in a separate account. Competition for shared capital is ignored. Months before 21 September 2026 are in-sample historical simulations with modelled fills and fees. From that date live strategies use closed-trade returns net of fees and funding, divided by equity at entry. September may be mixed. Trend Following remains a backtest with paper trading. Thin-market fills may differ from simulations and historical patterns may stop working.

## Metric definitions

All metrics use published monthly observations and a risk-free rate of 0%.

### Fixed capital

Definition: Monthly return = closed-trade profit or loss / starting capital. Period returns add, rather than compound; profits are treated as withdrawn and losses as topped up.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-fixed-capital

### Annualised return

Definition: Mean monthly return × 12, including zero-return months; expressed as a percentage of fixed capital, not a compound growth rate.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-annualised-return

### Annualised volatility

Definition: Sample standard deviation of monthly returns × √12, including zero-return months; expressed as a percentage.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-annualised-volatility

### Sharpe ratio

Definition: Annualised return / annualised volatility, with a risk-free rate of 0%. Undefined for zero volatility; short samples have wide uncertainty.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-sharpe-ratio

### Sortino ratio

Definition: Annualised return / (√(mean of min(r, 0)²) × √12), using all monthly observations. Undefined without losing months.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-sortino-ratio

### Max drawdown

Definition: Largest fall in the arithmetic cumulative monthly return from a prior month-end peak, measured as a percentage of fixed starting capital. It does not measure losses within a month.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-max-drawdown

### Calmar ratio

Definition: Annualised return / absolute maximum month-end drawdown. Undefined without a drawdown.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-calmar-ratio

### Longest drawdown

Definition: Maximum consecutive month-ends below a previous cumulative-return peak, measured in months.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-longest-drawdown

### Positive months

Definition: Positive-return months / non-zero-return months. Zero-return months are excluded from this share; a zero return does not establish that a strategy was out of the market.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-positive-months

### Profit factor

Definition: Sum of positive monthly returns / absolute sum of negative monthly returns. This is a monthly aggregation, not a trade-level profit factor.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-profit-factor

### Correlation and beta to BTC

Definition: Pearson correlation of paired monthly strategy and Bitcoin benchmark returns; beta = sample covariance / sample variance of Bitcoin returns. Requires at least 12 paired months and non-zero variance.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-correlation-beta

### n/m

Definition: Sortino, Calmar and profit factor display n/m with fewer than three losing months; otherwise displayed values above 10 are capped. An undefined ratio displays a dash.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-not-meaningful

### Bitcoin benchmark

Definition: Passive Bitcoin buy and hold using month-end UTC prices. Benchmark period returns and drawdowns compound, unlike fixed-capital strategy returns.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-bitcoin-benchmark

### Live versus backtest

Definition: Mean of live and mixed monthly returns compared with the mean of backtest months. Mixed months combine both sources and do not count as full live months.

Reference: https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology#def-live-backtest

## Updates and limitations

[Public data versions and revision history](https://whycoinmoves.com/data-revisions) preserve publication snapshots and correction counts.

Figures are recalculated after each month closes. Short monthly samples carry substantial uncertainty. This information is not investment advice or an offer to manage money.