# Seasonal Weakness

Source: https://whycoinmoves.com/strategies/downbeat

A seasonality crypto strategy based on recurring patterns of relative market weakness. Seasonal effects can weaken, and returns vary over time.

Returns are percentages of fixed capital, non-compounded. Zero return does not establish an empty position. Missing observations are unavailable, not zero. Sources: backtest, live, mixed, missing. Month-end drawdowns hide intra-month losses. Backtests are in-sample; past performance does not guarantee future results.

Data through: 2026-10. Last data update: 2026-11-04T01:05:07Z.

## Metrics (2024-11–2026-10)

| Metric | Value |
| --- | --- |
| 1M return (available history, up to 1M) | +3.04% |
| 3M return (available history, up to 3M) | +11.40% |
| 6M return (available history, up to 6M) | +35.91% |
| 12M return (available history, up to 12M) | +65.12% |
| 24M return (available history, up to 24M) | +125.75% |
| Annualised return | +62.87% |
| Annualised volatility | +23.27% |
| Sharpe ratio | 2.70 |
| Sortino ratio | >10 |
| Profit factor (monthly) | >10 |
| Maximum month-end drawdown | −3.61% |
| Correlation to Bitcoin | −0.43 |

## Seasonal Weakness: monthly returns (%), 2024-11–2026-10, fixed capital, non-compounded

| Month | Strategy return (%) | Bitcoin return (%) | Source |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| 2024-11 | 0.00% | +37.19% | backtest |
| 2024-12 | 0.00% | −3.03% | backtest |
| 2025-01 | −3.34% | +9.44% | backtest |
| 2025-02 | +8.70% | −17.66% | backtest |
| 2025-03 | +20.19% | −2.11% | backtest |
| 2025-04 | −0.13% | +14.07% | backtest |
| 2025-05 | +4.26% | +11.07% | backtest |
| 2025-06 | −3.61% | +2.43% | backtest |
| 2025-07 | +14.51% | +8.04% | backtest |
| 2025-08 | +5.61% | −6.47% | backtest |
| 2025-09 | −3.06% | +5.34% | backtest |
| 2025-10 | +17.49% | −3.89% | backtest |
| 2025-11 | +11.53% | −17.56% | backtest |
| 2025-12 | +1.08% | −3.00% | backtest |
| 2026-01 | +2.42% | −10.16% | backtest |
| 2026-02 | +5.65% | −14.95% | backtest |
| 2026-03 | +5.56% | +1.95% | backtest |
| 2026-04 | +2.98% | +11.82% | backtest |
| 2026-05 | +1.73% | −3.48% | backtest |
| 2026-06 | +17.93% | −20.43% | backtest |
| 2026-07 | +4.86% | +7.26% | backtest |
| 2026-08 | +1.88% | +24.96% | backtest |
| 2026-09 | +6.47% | +6.40% | mixed |
| 2026-10 | +3.04% | −7.24% | live |

[Metric definitions](https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology.md) · [CSV](https://whycoinmoves.com/api/strategies/downbeat.csv)