# Conditional Drift

Source: https://whycoinmoves.com/strategies/ebb

An event-driven crypto strategy based on price tendencies that depend on the broader market context. Long flat stretches are part of its historical return profile.

Returns are percentages of fixed capital, non-compounded. Zero return does not establish an empty position. Missing observations are unavailable, not zero. Sources: backtest, live, mixed, missing. Month-end drawdowns hide intra-month losses. Backtests are in-sample; past performance does not guarantee future results.

Data through: 2026-10. Last data update: 2026-11-04T01:05:07Z.

## Metrics (2024-11–2026-10)

| Metric | Value |
| --- | --- |
| 1M return (available history, up to 1M) | +2.79% |
| 3M return (available history, up to 3M) | +18.50% |
| 6M return (available history, up to 6M) | +78.21% |
| 12M return (available history, up to 12M) | +137.22% |
| 24M return (available history, up to 24M) | +137.22% |
| Annualised return | +68.61% |
| Annualised volatility | +30.75% |
| Sharpe ratio | 2.23 |
| Sortino ratio | — |
| Profit factor (monthly) | — |
| Maximum month-end drawdown | 0.00% |
| Correlation to Bitcoin | −0.16 |

## Conditional Drift: monthly returns (%), 2024-11–2026-10, fixed capital, non-compounded

| Month | Strategy return (%) | Bitcoin return (%) | Source |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| 2024-11 | 0.00% | +37.19% | backtest |
| 2024-12 | 0.00% | −3.03% | backtest |
| 2025-01 | 0.00% | +9.44% | backtest |
| 2025-02 | 0.00% | −17.66% | backtest |
| 2025-03 | 0.00% | −2.11% | backtest |
| 2025-04 | 0.00% | +14.07% | backtest |
| 2025-05 | 0.00% | +11.07% | backtest |
| 2025-06 | 0.00% | +2.43% | backtest |
| 2025-07 | 0.00% | +8.04% | backtest |
| 2025-08 | 0.00% | −6.47% | backtest |
| 2025-09 | 0.00% | +5.34% | backtest |
| 2025-10 | 0.00% | −3.89% | backtest |
| 2025-11 | 0.00% | −17.56% | backtest |
| 2025-12 | 0.00% | −3.00% | backtest |
| 2026-01 | +15.30% | −10.16% | backtest |
| 2026-02 | +16.76% | −14.95% | backtest |
| 2026-03 | +1.80% | +1.95% | backtest |
| 2026-04 | +25.15% | +11.82% | backtest |
| 2026-05 | +28.21% | −3.48% | backtest |
| 2026-06 | +19.15% | −20.43% | backtest |
| 2026-07 | +12.35% | +7.26% | backtest |
| 2026-08 | +7.86% | +24.96% | backtest |
| 2026-09 | +7.85% | +6.40% | mixed |
| 2026-10 | +2.79% | −7.24% | live |

[Metric definitions](https://whycoinmoves.com/methodology.md) · [CSV](https://whycoinmoves.com/api/strategies/ebb.csv)