Macro Event
Policy Pulse
A macro event crypto strategy based on the transmission of monetary policy information into market prices. Returns are concentrated in episodes of policy-related repricing.
- 12-month return
- +11.1%
- Sharpe
- 1.03
- Max drawdown
- −6.3%
- Corr. to BTC
- −0.21
24 months: +27.4%
Annualised, monthly
Month-end
Beta −0.06
- 1M
- −0.5%
- 3M
- +0.4%
- 6M
- +4.3%
- 12M
- +11.1%
- 24M
- +27.4%
- Record
- 1 live · 1 mixed · 22 backtest months
Performance
Live Backtest · Through Oct 2026 · cumulative is on fixed capital (months add).
Performance and risk metrics
Last 24 months (Nov 2024 to Oct 2026), from monthly returns on fixed capital; risk-free rate 0%. Definitions.
Over this 24-month window, Policy Pulse returned +11.1% over 12 months and +27.4% over 24 months on fixed capital, with an annualised return of +13.7%, annualised volatility of 13.3%, Sharpe ratio of 1.03, and maximum month-end drawdown of −6.3% (17 active months, 47% positive).
Return and risk
- Annualised return
- +13.7%
- Annualised volatility
- 13.3%
- Sharpe ratio
- 1.03
- Sortino ratio
- 3.27
Mean monthly return × 12
Std. dev. of monthly returns × √12
Return per unit of total volatility
Return per unit of downside volatility
Drawdown
- Max drawdown
- −6.3%
- Calmar ratio
- 2.17
- Longest drawdown
- 4 months
- Worst month
- −3.3%
Largest fall from a month-end peak
Annualised return ÷ max drawdown
Month-ends spent below a prior peak
Best month +13.0%
Consistency and market exposure
- Positive months
- 47%
- Profit factor
- 2.92
- Correlation to BTC
- −0.21
- Beta to BTC
- −0.06
Of 17 months with trades
Sum of gains ÷ sum of losses
Monthly, vs Bitcoin buy and hold
Return change per 1% Bitcoin move
Live versus backtest
- Live or mixed months
- 2
- Live/mixed average month
- +0.20%
- Backtest average month
- +1.23%
Includes mixed backtest/live months
Mean of live and mixed months
Mean of earlier backtest months
2 live or mixed months are far too few to confirm or reject the backtest; this updates every month.
Month-end figures hide losses inside a month: open positions can be deeper underwater than any monthly number here. Studies how macroeconomic information and policy expectations affect crypto markets.
Month by month
Newest first| Month | Policy Pulse | Bitcoin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | −0.51% | −7.24% | live |
| Sep 2026 | +0.90% | +6.40% | backtest + live |
| Aug 2026 | 0.00% | +24.96% | backtest |
| Jul 2026 | −0.36% | +7.26% | backtest |
| Jun 2026 | +4.28% | −20.43% | backtest |
| May 2026 | 0.00% | −3.48% | backtest |
| Apr 2026 | −0.97% | +11.82% | backtest |
| Mar 2026 | −1.77% | +1.95% | backtest |
| Feb 2026 | 0.00% | −14.95% | backtest |
| Jan 2026 | +7.23% | −10.16% | backtest |
| Dec 2025 | +2.27% | −3.00% | backtest |
| Nov 2025 | 0.00% | −17.56% | backtest |
Show 12 earlier months
| Month | Policy Pulse | Bitcoin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | +5.03% | −3.89% | backtest |
| Sep 2025 | +1.14% | +5.34% | backtest |
| Aug 2025 | 0.00% | −6.47% | backtest |
| Jul 2025 | −0.23% | +8.04% | backtest |
| Jun 2025 | −1.08% | +2.43% | backtest |
| May 2025 | +13.01% | +11.07% | backtest |
| Apr 2025 | 0.00% | +14.07% | backtest |
| Mar 2025 | −2.99% | −2.11% | backtest |
| Feb 2025 | 0.00% | −17.66% | backtest |
| Jan 2025 | −3.33% | +9.44% | backtest |
| Dec 2024 | +7.87% | −3.03% | backtest |
| Nov 2024 | −3.06% | +37.19% | backtest |
Research on macro event markets
Studies of the same market area. They describe the market, not Policy Pulse’s rules.
- Data studyDo USDT mints pump Bitcoin? 202 on-chain Tether issuancesRead →
- Data studyDoes crypto news move prices or follow them? A timestamp auditRead →
- Data studyDo Bitcoin ETF flows predict the price? 684 days of daily flowsRead →
- Data study · chartsBitcoin institutional adoption: CME, spot ETFs and SPY correlationRead →
Run Policy Pulse yourself
The rules, sizing and execution notes are shared with approved subscribers. Run it in your own account on a major crypto exchange.