---
title: "CFTC Again Probes Polymarket Over Whether It Let Americans Trade"
description: "Bitcoin Magazine 于 2026-10-27 报道。 Bitcoin Magazine: “The CFTC is reportedly probing whether Polymarket broke its 2022 settlement by letting US users onto its…"
language: zh
canonical: "https://whycoinmoves.com/zh/events/bitcoin-cftc-again-probes-polymarket-over-05176a4c0b5097"
published: 2026-10-27T18:33:08.000Z
updated: 2026-10-27T19:33:58.000Z
indexable: false
---

# CFTC Again Probes Polymarket Over Whether It Let Americans Trade

Bitcoin Magazine 于 2026-10-27 报道。 Bitcoin Magazine: “The CFTC is reportedly probing whether Polymarket broke its 2022 settlement by letting US users onto its…

Attributed sources: [Bitcoin Magazine](<https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/cftc-reopens-questions-about-polymarkets>)

## Key facts

Bitcoin Magazine: “The CFTC is reportedly probing whether Polymarket broke its 2022 settlement by letting US users onto its offshore platform.” 站点捕获后 1 小时内观测到 BTC +0.08%。市场观测不构成因果证明。
Evidence strength: 单一信源, 1 publisher group(s) (Bitcoin Magazine).
站点捕获后的观测收益率：5 分钟: +0.09% (2026-10-27 18:33 → 2026-10-27 18:38, UTC; Gate · USDT)；1 小时: +0.08% (2026-10-27 18:33 → 2026-10-27 19:33, UTC; Gate · USDT)。
前 30 天小时级绝对收益率的 99% 分位数为 1.01%（OKX · USDT；截止 2026-10-27 18:33, UTC）。

## Returns after site detection

| Window | Return | BTC | Difference from BTC | Actual sampled interval (UTC) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 分钟 | +0.09% | +0.09% | 0.00 个百分点 | 2026-10-27 18:33 → 2026-10-27 18:38 | Gate · USDT |
| 1 小时 | +0.08% | +0.08% | 0.00 个百分点 | 2026-10-27 18:33 → 2026-10-27 19:33 | Gate · USDT |

## Historical hourly baseline

| Metric | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Coverage | 100.0% (720/720) |
| Median absolute hourly return | 0.15% |
| 99th percentile of absolute hourly returns | 1.01% |
| BTC beta | 1.00 |
| Source / cutoff (UTC) | OKX · USDT / 2026-10-27 18:33 |

## Claims and open questions

- No independently verified causal explanation is available.

## Source evidence

- [CFTC Again Probes Polymarket Over Whether It Let Americans Trade](<https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/cftc-reopens-questions-about-polymarkets>) — Bitcoin Magazine; published 2026-10-27 18:29; received 2026-10-27 18:33 (UTC).


## Recent BTC events and market reactions

暂无其他已达标的 BTC 事件。

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证据等级描述信源覆盖范围，不代表报道为真的概率。价格变动及其时间先后不能证明原因；分钟采样仅反映观测区间，异动阈值为经验设定。解读由模型辅助生成，引用与数字经过核对。信源标题保留原文语言，不转载全文。 [Methods and limitations](<https://whycoinmoves.com/zh/methodology>)