{"slug":"bitcoin-halving-and-market-cycles","reviewed":"2026-10-20","observationPeriod":"2011-11-29/2025-04-20","kind":"empirical","sourceFingerprints":[{"label":"Coin Metrics public BTC daily snapshot","sha256":"06495ff8e643432e6948b7b4686ce44fc106217287dabdc1b38351d9ddec46c3"}],"title":["Bitcoin halving and bull markets: evidence from four halvings","比特币减半一定带来牛市吗？四次减半的收益与回撤"],"summary":["Compare Bitcoin returns and drawdowns around four halvings. Positive one-year endpoints in this sample do not prove that halving alone causes a bull market.","统一比较四次比特币减半后的收益与回撤；样本中的一年端点收益为正，不代表减半能单独造成牛市或保证未来上涨。"],"relatedCoins":["bitcoin"],"relatedTopics":["market"],"table":{"caption":["BTC daily USD closing-price observations around four halvings; returns in percent","四次减半前后的 BTC 美元日收盘价观测；收益单位为 %"],"columns":[["Halving date (UTC)","减半日期（UTC）"],["Prior 365 days (%)","此前 365 天（%）"],["Next 30 days (%)","之后 30 天（%）"],["Next 365 days (%)","之后 365 天（%）"],["Next 365-day max drawdown (%)","之后 365 天最大回撤（%）"]],"rows":[["2012-11-28","+347.17","+9.11","+8069.11","-71.24"],["2016-07-09","+128.30","-9.25","+284.42","-30.51"],["2020-05-11","+23.75","+15.09","+558.92","-25.55"],["2024-04-20","+137.83","+9.70","+31.11","-28.05"]]},"figures":[],"methods":[{"heading":["What the protocol actually changes","协议实际改变了什么"],"paragraphs":[["Bitcoin’s scheduled halving reduces the block subsidy, the newly issued coins available to miners per block. It does not halve existing balances, total circulating supply or transaction fees. The subsidy schedule is a supply rule; a market price also depends on demand, existing holders’ transactions and expectations.","比特币的定期减半削减区块补贴，即每个区块可向矿工新发行的币。它不会把既有余额、流通总量或交易手续费减半。补贴安排是一条供给规则，而市场价格还取决于需求、既有持有者的交易和预期。"],["The event is scheduled by block height, so the calendar date is estimated until the relevant block arrives. A widely anticipated supply change can affect expectations before its effective date. A price reaction need not begin on the halving day, and a supply change alone does not specify its direction or size.","事件按区块高度触发，因此在相关区块到来前，日历日期只是估计。广为预期的供给变化可能提前影响市场，价格反应未必从减半当天开始；供给变化本身也不能指定价格反应的方向与幅度。"]]},{"heading":["A consistent comparison, including the uncomfortable parts","用一致口径，也展示不利路径"],"paragraphs":[["We recalculated the table from Coin Metrics’ public BTC PriceUSD daily series, using the UTC halving dates listed by Bitcoin.org. The comparison uses the same 30-day and 365-day offsets for every event, rather than selecting each cycle’s best exit. The preceding 365-day return is included to show that substantial changes can occur before the event.","本文使用 Coin Metrics 公开 BTC PriceUSD 日序列重新计算，采用 Bitcoin.org 所列 UTC 减半日期。各次事件统一使用 30 天与 365 天观察间隔，不挑选每轮最有利的终点；同时展示此前 365 天收益，说明显著变化也可能发生在事件之前。"],["Every one-year endpoint is positive here. Yet 2016 is negative over the first 30 days, and the four one-year paths contain maximum drawdowns ranging from about 25.55% to 71.24%. A positive endpoint therefore does not mean a smooth rise or an absence of large interim losses. These are price observations without trading costs, not account returns.","这里四次一年端点收益均为正，但 2016 年最初 30 天为负；四条一年路径的最大回撤约为 25.55% 至 71.24%。端点为正并不意味着一路上涨，或中间没有巨大损失。这些是不含交易成本的价格观测，不是账户收益。"]]},{"heading":["How the numbers were calculated","数字如何计算"],"paragraphs":[["For each event date t, the endpoint return is 100 × (P[t + h] / P[t] − 1). PriceUSD represents the UTC day-end closing price for the labelled date, not the exact halving-block price. The one-year path includes the event-day close and the following 365 daily closes: 366 positive, non-missing observations per event. No missing date was interpolated.","对事件日期 t，端点收益为 100 ×（P[t + h] / P[t] − 1）。PriceUSD 是所标日期的 UTC 日终收盘价，不是减半区块时刻的价格。一年路径包含事件日收盘及之后 365 个日收盘，每次均有 366 个非缺失正价格观测，没有对缺失日期插值。"],["Maximum drawdown is the most negative value of 100 × (daily price / the running maximum since the event-day close − 1). It measures peak-to-trough loss within that path. It is different from the minimum return relative to the event date, and daily closing prices can miss larger intraday losses.","最大回撤取 100 ×（每日价格 / 自事件日收盘以来的累计最高价格 − 1）的最小值，衡量路径内峰谷损失。它不同于相对事件日的最低收益，日收盘价还可能遗漏更大的日内损失。"]]},{"heading":["Why four positive outcomes do not identify a cause","为什么四次正收益不能识别原因"],"paragraphs":[["The independent event count is four, not the number of daily rows. Bitcoin’s market size, ownership, infrastructure and macroeconomic environment changed between cycles. There is no observed version of the same market in which the scheduled halving did not occur, and this table does not control for those other changes.","独立事件数是四次，不是日线行数。比特币的市场规模、持有结构、基础设施与宏观环境在各轮之间变化。我们观察不到同一市场在“没有发生减半”情况下的对应路径，这张表也没有控制其他变化。"],["The historical pattern is compatible with a contribution from reduced issuance, but it cannot assign a causal percentage to that mechanism. It also cannot establish a universal rule for altcoins or the entire crypto market. An event chosen for a familiar narrative must not be treated as a random, independent experiment.","历史模式与新增发行减少作出贡献的解释相容，但不能计算这一机制的因果贡献比例，也不能建立适用于山寨币或整个加密市场的普遍规则。不能因为事件叙事熟悉，就把它视为随机、独立的实验。"]]},{"heading":["What a stronger study would add","更强的研究还需要什么"],"paragraphs":[["A stronger design would predefine observation periods, compare non-halving dates under comparable market conditions, test sensitivity to dates and sources, and incorporate demand and miner-flow evidence. Those controls are not included here. The defensible conclusion is that historical cycles deserve study, while “halving guarantees a bull market” goes beyond the evidence.","更强的设计需要事先确定观察期间，在可比较的市场条件下对照非减半日期，检查日期与数据源敏感性，并加入需求和矿工流量证据。本文没有完成这些控制。可以保留的结论是历史周期值得研究，而“减半保证牛市”超出了证据。"]]},{"heading":["Does Bitcoin always go up after a halving?","比特币减半后一定会上涨吗？"],"paragraphs":[["All four events in this historical sample have positive 365-day endpoint returns, but shorter observations and interim drawdowns differ. Four selected events cannot establish an always-rising rule or guarantee the next cycle.","这份历史样本的四次事件，365 天端点收益均为正，但较短观察与期间回撤不同。四个事件不能确立必涨规律，也不能保证下一轮周期。"]]},{"heading":["Does Bitcoin halving alone cause a crypto bull market?","比特币产量减半本身就会导致牛市吗？"],"paragraphs":[["The comparison does not isolate that causal effect. A scheduled supply change occurs alongside changes in demand, liquidity, access and wider financial conditions. Those influences cannot be separated with four event comparisons alone.","本文没有分离这一因果影响。预定供给变化与需求、流动性、参与渠道及金融环境变化同时发生，仅凭四次事件比较无法区分这些影响。"]]}],"limitations":["Four historical events, retrospective observation periods and daily closing prices. No causal counterfactual, matched-control study, intraday path or predictive validation is supplied. The raw source can be revised; its fingerprint identifies the snapshot used.","仅四次历史事件，观察期间为事后统一选取，使用日收盘价。未完成因果反事实、匹配对照、日内路径或预测验证。原始数据源可能修订，指纹识别本次使用的快照。"],"sources":[{"title":["Bitcoin.org: halving history and block-subsidy mechanism","Bitcoin.org：减半历史与区块补贴机制"],"url":"https://bitcoin.org/en/halving"},{"title":["Coin Metrics: public BTC daily data","Coin Metrics：公开 BTC 日数据"],"url":"https://github.com/coinmetrics/data/blob/master/csv/btc.csv"},{"title":["Coin Metrics: PriceUSD definition and timestamp convention","Coin Metrics：PriceUSD 定义与时间口径"],"url":"https://docs.coinmetrics.io/network-data/network-data-overview/market/price"}]}