{"slug":"chz-football-tournaments-and-return-claims","reviewed":"2026-10-20","observationPeriod":"2021-06-11/2026-07-19","kind":"empirical","sourceFingerprints":[{"label":"CHZ OKX spot USDT daily archive","sha256":"b5708754d440c57dde8eb4143f55fffce14e1d380bd200f4749ea6d631de8ffc"},{"label":"BTC OKX spot USDT daily archive","sha256":"95e1f40330bce0000be292218afaf63ef2e050c2206604a383c23a6a7fcc3fc4"}],"title":["CHZ and fan tokens: World Cup and EURO price performance","CHZ 与球迷代币：世界杯、欧洲杯行情真的能赚钱吗？"],"summary":["Study Chiliz CHZ around four World Cup and EURO dates. Historical price comparisons do not support guaranteed tournament profits or fixed annual opportunities.","观察 Chiliz（CHZ）在四次世界杯、欧洲杯赛事日期附近的表现；历史价格比较不支持赛事必赚或每年固定盈利机会。"],"relatedCoins":[],"relatedTopics":["general"],"table":{"caption":["Daily-close date-label comparisons, OKX spot / USDT; no trading costs","OKX 现货 / USDT 日收盘日期标签比较；不含交易成本"],"columns":[["Tournament","赛事"],["Start-date label","开始日期标签"],["Final-date label","决赛日期标签"],["CHZ return (%)","CHZ 收益（%）"],["BTC return (%)","BTC 收益（%）"],["Difference (pp)","差值（百分点）"]],"rows":[["EURO 2020 (held 2021)","2021-06-11","2021-07-11","-19.33","-7.80","-11.53"],["World Cup 2022","2022-11-20","2022-12-18","-47.29","+0.97","-48.26"],["EURO 2024","2024-06-14","2024-07-14","-39.74","-9.49","-30.25"],["World Cup 2026","2026-06-11","2026-07-19","-48.36","+2.91","-51.26"]]},"figures":[],"methods":[{"heading":["Which token is this about?","这里研究的是哪种代币"],"paragraphs":[["We interpret the football-related token in this topic as CHZ, for which the existing research archive contains market data. CHZ belongs to the Chiliz ecosystem; it is not interchangeable with a particular club or national-team fan token. A tournament promotion or a team result need not affect all of those instruments in the same way.","本文将该主题中的足球相关代币按 CHZ 理解，既有研究归档有相应行情数据。CHZ 属于 Chiliz 生态，但不等同于某个俱乐部或国家队球迷代币；赛事推广或球队结果未必以相同方式影响所有这些工具。"],["Chiliz announced a World Cup-themed national-team-token campaign in 2026. That is evidence of a commercial link to the sporting event, not evidence that CHZ holders earned a particular return. Campaign rules and token utility must be distinguished from exchange-price performance.","Chiliz 在 2026 年公布了世界杯主题的国家队代币活动，这说明存在商业活动联系，却不能证明 CHZ 持有者获得某种收益。活动规则与代币用途，需要同交易价格表现区分。"]]},{"heading":["What the four date comparisons show","四次日期比较显示了什么"],"paragraphs":[["In this sample, CHZ falls between the opening-date and final-date daily-close labels for each of the four tournaments. The corresponding BTC differences are also negative. The comparison therefore does not support treating the tournament itself as an automatic positive-return event for CHZ.","本样本中，四次赛事的开赛日期与决赛日期对应日收盘之间，CHZ 均下跌，相对 BTC 差值也均为负。因此，这项比较不支持把赛事本身视为 CHZ 自动获得正收益的事件。"],["The BTC comparison helps expose broad-market co-movement but is not a causal adjustment or beta hedge. CHZ can have different volatility and risk sensitivity from BTC. A negative percentage-point difference does not tell us whether the tournament, liquidity, token supply or another concurrent event produced the move.","与 BTC 比较有助于揭示共同市场变化，但不是因果调整或 Beta 对冲。CHZ 的波动与市场敏感度可以不同于 BTC；负的百分点差值不能说明是赛事、流动性、供给还是其他同期事件造成了变化。"]]},{"heading":["Calendar and price alignment","日历与价格如何对齐"],"paragraphs":[["The dates come from FIFA and UEFA tournament records. EURO 2020 is assigned its actual 2021 dates, not the year in its name. We checked saved confirmed OKX CHZ-USDT and BTC-USDT daily candles for unique date keys, positive finite prices, OHLC consistency and complete observations between the relevant endpoints.","日期来自 FIFA 与 UEFA 的赛事记录。EURO 2020 使用实际举办的 2021 年日期，而不是名称中的年份。对保存的已确认 OKX CHZ-USDT 与 BTC-USDT 日 K 线，检查日期键唯一、有限正价格、OHLC 一致性及相关端点之间观测完整。"],["These OKX daily bars use UTC+8 calendar days. We match the organisers’ opening and final calendar-date labels to those daily closes and calculate 100 × (last close / first close − 1). This is a coarse date-label comparison, not alignment to kickoff or the final whistle: a final played late in its host time zone may finish after the matched UTC+8 close. Missing observations are not interpolated.","这些 OKX 日线按 UTC+8 自然日划分。本文把主办方公布的开赛与决赛日历日期标签对应至日收盘，计算 100 ×（末日收盘 / 首日收盘 − 1）。这是粗粒度日期标签比较，不对齐开球或终场时刻；在主办地晚间举行的决赛，可能晚于匹配的 UTC+8 收盘才结束。缺失观测不插值。"]]},{"heading":["Four tournaments are not hundreds of independent events","四届赛事不是数百次独立事件"],"paragraphs":[["The independent tournament count is four. Daily candles, individual matches and several correlated fan tokens cannot be counted as independent replications of the same tournament effect. The events differ in season, location, market conditions and ecosystem activity, and the available CHZ listing history limits older comparisons.","独立赛事数是四届。日 K 线、单场比赛及多个相关球迷代币，不能当作同一赛事效应的独立重复样本。各届季节、地点、市场环境与生态活动不同，CHZ 可用上市历史也限制了更早比较。"],["This is a selected, retrospective sample, not a complete census of every sporting event. Broadening the story to “several opportunities every year” would require a separately defined event universe, including unprofitable and inactive periods. A known fixture list establishes dates, not a count of profitable trades.","这是选定的回顾性样本，不是全部体育赛事全集。要推广为“每年几次机会”，需要另行定义完整事件范围，包含亏损与没有活动的期间。已知赛程能确定日期，不能确定盈利交易次数。"]]},{"heading":["Why this is not a short-selling recipe","为什么这不是做空方法"],"paragraphs":[["Four negative observations can tempt a reverse guarantee: “then short every tournament.” That conclusion also goes beyond the evidence. Price losses for a spot holder are not automatically executable gains for a short seller; borrowing or funding costs, interim rallies, liquidation, available instruments and entry prices matter.","四次负观测容易引出反向保证：“那就每届做空。”这个结论同样超出证据。现货持有者的价格损失，不会自动成为空头可执行的盈利；融币或资金费、期间反弹、清算、工具可用性与入场价格都重要。"],["Nor does this test rule out a different pre-event pattern: it has not measured one. Searching many lead times after seeing the chart and publishing the best would introduce selection bias. We publish public-date descriptive results only, without private event filters, timing windows, position rules or promised annual income.","本检验也不能排除不同的赛前模式，因为本文没有测量它。看过图后搜索很多提前期，再只公布最佳结果，会引入筛选偏差。本文仅公布公开日期的描述性结果，不公开私人事件筛选、交易窗口、仓位规则或承诺年收入。"]]},{"heading":["Does CHZ always rise before the World Cup or EURO?","世界杯、欧洲杯前 CHZ 一定会涨吗？"],"paragraphs":[["The four fixed tournament-date comparisons in this OKX spot sample all show negative CHZ returns over the published intervals. This challenges an automatic tournament-profit claim, but does not test every possible pre-event interval or prove a repeatable opposite trade.","这份 OKX 现货样本的四次固定赛事日期比较，在公布区间内 CHZ 收益均为负。这削弱赛事自动盈利的说法，但没有检验所有可能的赛前区间，也没有证明反向交易可重复盈利。"]]},{"heading":["Are Chiliz CHZ and individual football fan tokens the same asset?","Chiliz 的 CHZ 和各支球队的球迷代币是同一种资产吗？"],"paragraphs":[["No. A CHZ price study should not be presented as a return study of every club or national-team fan token. Different tokens have different rights, trading histories and event exposure. This article’s empirical price sample is CHZ.","不是。CHZ 价格研究不能当成每个俱乐部或国家队球迷代币的收益研究。不同代币的权利、交易历史与赛事暴露不同，本文实证价格样本是 CHZ。"]]}],"limitations":["Four selected tournaments, one token and one spot venue; coarse UTC+8 date labels rather than exact match times. No complete sporting-event census, causal attribution, pre-event strategy or executable short-return study is supplied.","四届选定赛事、单币与单一现货交易所；按 UTC+8 日期标签粗略对齐，而非精确比赛时刻。未完成完整赛事全集、因果归因、赛前策略或可执行做空收益研究。"],"sources":[{"title":["OKX market data documentation","OKX 行情数据文档"],"url":"https://www.okx.com/docs-v5/en/#rest-api-market-data-get-candlesticks-history"},{"title":["UEFA: EURO 2020 actual 2021 dates","UEFA：EURO 2020 实际 2021 年日期"],"url":"https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/history/news/0254-0d41684d1216-06773df7faed-1000--uefa-euro-2020-match-schedule/"},{"title":["UEFA: EURO 2024 dates and results","UEFA：EURO 2024 日期与结果"],"url":"https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/history/news/0275-151eb1c333ea-d30deec67b13-1000--uefa-euro-2024-results-when-and-where-were-the-matches/"},{"title":["FIFA: Qatar 2022 dates","FIFA：卡塔尔 2022 世界杯日期"],"url":"https://inside.fifa.com/tournament-organisation/world-cup-2022-in-numbers/fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022-at-a-glance"},{"title":["FIFA: World Cup 2026 match schedule","FIFA：2026 世界杯赛程"],"url":"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/match-schedule-fixtures-results-teams-stadiums"},{"title":["Chiliz: 2026 national-team-token campaign","Chiliz：2026 年国家队代币活动"],"url":"https://www.chiliz.com/chiliz-brings-gamified-national-team-fan-tokens-to-the-world-cup/"}]}