{"slug":"hourly-returns-and-bitcoin-beta","reviewed":"2026-10-20","observationPeriod":"2025-10-01T00:00:00Z/2026-09-24T06:00:00Z","kind":"empirical","sourceFingerprints":[{"label":"BTC OKX spot USDT hourly archive","sha256":"0c0f771524ac6ee31682afebee3e206ccc4293f082108d2f808bb164d63e28ab"},{"label":"ETH OKX spot USDT hourly archive","sha256":"90a4f4bda9cb9419f7f4b17d964ecb3de68cc9bab9960494bfe605b08ce49881"},{"label":"SOL OKX spot USDT hourly archive","sha256":"9c967ccdec27c283451fd43160a33e3364badfa24726188146cf15cef7fb6878"},{"label":"DOGE OKX spot USDT hourly archive","sha256":"455bd889b9b7b739989db3b773c853353744b7380ff89403bc567156c95f8e69"}],"title":["Altcoin beta to Bitcoin: BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE hourly returns","山寨币 BTC Beta 与小时波动：BTC、ETH、SOL、DOGE 实证"],"summary":["Compare hourly returns, volatility and Bitcoin beta for BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE using OKX spot data, with sample counts and a separate live baseline.","用 OKX 现货历史数据比较 BTC、ETH、SOL、DOGE 的小时收益、波动与比特币 Beta，列明样本量、尾部观测及独立的实时基线。"],"relatedCoins":["bitcoin","ethereum","solana","dogecoin"],"relatedTopics":["market"],"table":{"caption":["Historical OKX spot / USDT sample; absolute close-to-close hourly returns","历史 OKX 现货 / USDT 样本；相邻小时收盘价绝对收益"],"columns":[["Asset","币种"],["Closed bars / expected","已收盘 K 线 / 应有"],["Valid returns N","有效收益 N"],["Median |r| (%)","|r| 中位数（%）"],["P99 |r| (%)","|r| P99（%）"],["BTC beta","BTC Beta"],["Matched returns N","同期收益 N"]],"rows":[["BTC","8596 / 8598","8593","0.2004","1.7751","1.0000","8593"],["ETH","8596 / 8598","8593","0.2588","2.4855","1.2168","8593"],["SOL","8595 / 8598","8591","0.3129","2.6685","1.2706","8591"],["DOGE","8595 / 8598","8591","0.3164","2.8403","1.2473","8591"]]},"figures":[],"methods":[{"heading":["What the sample shows","样本说明了什么"],"paragraphs":[["The median absolute hourly return is 0.2004% for BTC and 0.3164% for DOGE. The corresponding P99 values are 1.7751% and 2.8403%. A fixed percentage move therefore occupies a different place in each asset’s empirical distribution. That supports reporting an asset-specific baseline alongside an alert; it does not establish an optimal alert setting.","BTC 小时绝对收益中位数为 0.2004%，DOGE 为 0.3164%；对应 P99 为 1.7751% 和 2.8403%。因此，同一个百分比涨跌在不同币种分布中处于不同位置。这支持在异动旁展示各币种自己的历史基线，但不能据此确定最优报警设置。"],["The gap between central and tail observations is large. P99 is an empirical order statistic, not a guaranteed future loss boundary. These figures alone are not a formal test against a normal distribution, and no false-positive rate is estimated because there is no independently labelled set of abnormal events.","中心位置与尾部观测差距很大。P99 是经验顺序统计量，不是未来损失上限。仅凭这些数值不能完成对正态分布的正式检验；由于没有独立标注的异常事件集合，本文也不估计误报率。"]]},{"heading":["Sample construction and missing hours","样本构造与缺失小时"],"paragraphs":[["We recalculated public-market candle data held in an existing research archive. The common observation window is 1 October 2025 00:00 UTC to 24 September 2026 06:00 UTC, with 8,598 possible hourly candles per asset. Only confirmed, closed candles enter the sample. Timestamps, duplicate keys, finite positive prices and OHLC consistency were checked. The local archive ends before the initially considered October cutoff, so the published period stops at the shared available endpoint.","本文重新计算既有研究归档保存的公开市场 K 线。共同观察窗口为 2025 年 10 月 1 日 00:00 UTC 至 2026 年 9 月 24 日 06:00 UTC，每币应有 8,598 根小时 K 线。仅纳入确认收盘的数据，并检查时间戳、重复键、有限正价格与 OHLC 一致性。本地归档没有延伸到最初考虑的十月截止点，因此公布期间止于共同可用端点。"],["Returns are 100 × (current close / previous close − 1), and only exactly adjacent hourly closes are paired. Gaps are neither forward-filled nor treated as zero returns. Quantiles use the sorted absolute returns at index floor((N − 1) × p), without interpolation. The table gives the remaining return count as well as candle coverage.","收益定义为 100 ×（本小时收盘价 / 上小时收盘价 − 1），只配对严格相邻的小时。缺口不向前填充，也不当作零收益。分位数取绝对收益排序后下标 floor((N − 1) × p) 的观测，不插值。表格同时给出实际收益数量与 K 线覆盖。"]]},{"heading":["How to read Bitcoin beta","如何阅读 BTC Beta"],"paragraphs":[["Beta is covariance(asset return, BTC return) divided by variance(BTC return), using signed returns at matching timestamps on the same venue and in the same quote currency. ETH, SOL and DOGE have sample betas above one here. This is a historical linear association; it does not mean every BTC move is multiplied by that number, or that the remaining return is caused by a coin-specific news event.","Beta 为资产收益与 BTC 收益的协方差除以 BTC 收益方差，采用同交易所、同计价币种、同时间的有符号收益。本样本中 ETH、SOL、DOGE 的 Beta 均高于一。这是历史线性关联，不代表每次 BTC 涨跌都会按该数值放大，也不代表剩余收益由单币新闻造成。"],["A beta calculated from a broad historical window can differ from the live rolling baseline below. Market composition, volatility and the sample period change. Hourly estimates also cannot be transferred directly to a minute-level move. Mixing USD and USDT series would add a quote-currency effect to the comparison.","较长历史窗口算出的 Beta 可能与下方实时滚动基线不同，市场构成、波动与样本区间都会变化。小时估计也不能直接移用于分钟异动；混合 USD 与 USDT 序列，还会把计价币种影响带入比较。"]]},{"heading":["What this changes when reading a price alert","对阅读异动消息的意义"],"paragraphs":[["A useful alert separates the measured move, its historical context and the explanation being proposed. Robust summaries can reduce the influence of isolated outliers, but they do not identify a cause. The live table is descriptive context from the site’s current coverage; it is a separate dataset, not an extension of this fixed historical sample.","有用的异动消息应区分实测涨跌、历史背景与待验证解释。稳健统计可以减轻孤立极值的影响，却不能识别原因。实时表格描述本站当前覆盖范围，是独立数据集，不是这份固定历史样本的续写。"]]},{"heading":["What is altcoin beta to Bitcoin?","山寨币相对比特币的 Beta 是什么？"],"paragraphs":[["Bitcoin beta describes how an asset’s returns co-move with BTC in a specified historical sample. It differs from correlation and from the asset’s own volatility. It is not a fixed multiplier for every future BTC move.","BTC Beta 描述特定历史样本中，资产收益与比特币共同变化的关系，和相关系数、资产自身波动都不相同；它不是未来每次 BTC 涨跌的固定倍数。"]]},{"heading":["Do altcoins have the same hourly volatility as Bitcoin?","山寨币的小时波动和比特币一样吗？"],"paragraphs":[["Not in this four-asset sample: median and tail absolute hourly returns differ across BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE. The comparison covers selected surviving assets on OKX spot, not every altcoin or trading venue.","这份四币样本中并不相同：BTC、ETH、SOL、DOGE 的小时绝对收益中位数与尾部观测有差异。比较仅覆盖选定的存续币种及 OKX 现货，不代表所有山寨币或交易所。"]]}],"limitations":["Four selected surviving assets on one spot venue are not a representative sample of all crypto assets. Missing hours remain excluded. There is no regime-stability test, causal identification, profitability backtest or out-of-sample validation in this article.","四个选定且仍存续的币种、单一现货交易所，不代表整个加密市场。缺失小时保持排除。本文没有完成状态稳定性检验、因果识别、盈利回测或样本外验证。"],"sources":[{"title":["OKX market data documentation","OKX 行情数据文档"],"url":"https://www.okx.com/docs-v5/en/#rest-api-market-data-get-candlesticks-history"}]}