Contrarian
Stress Reversion
A contrarian crypto strategy based on the potential reversal of extreme market behaviour. Historically idle in most months, with concentrated gains and losses when active.
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- 12-month return
- +6.4%
- Sharpe
- 1.65
- Max drawdown
- 0.0%
- Corr. to BTC
- −0.21
24 months: +66.0%
Annualised, monthly
Month-end
Beta −0.09
- 1M
- 0.0%
- 3M
- 0.0%
- 6M
- 0.0%
- 12M
- +6.4%
- 24M
- +66.0%
- Record
- 1 live · 1 mixed · 22 backtest months
Performance
Live Backtest · Through Oct 2026 · cumulative is on fixed capital (months add).
Performance and risk metrics
Last 24 months (Nov 2024 to Oct 2026), from monthly returns on fixed capital; risk-free rate 0%. Definitions.
Over this 24-month window, Stress Reversion returned +6.4% over 12 months and +66.0% over 24 months on fixed capital, with an annualised return of +33.0%, annualised volatility of 20.0%, Sharpe ratio of 1.65, and maximum month-end drawdown of 0.0% (7 active months, 100% positive).
Return and risk
- Annualised return
- +33.0%
- Annualised volatility
- 20.0%
- Sharpe ratio
- 1.65
- Sortino ratio
- —
Mean monthly return × 12
Std. dev. of monthly returns × √12
Return per unit of total volatility
No losing month in the period
Drawdown
- Max drawdown
- 0.0%
- Calmar ratio
- —
- Longest drawdown
- None
- Worst month
- 0.0%
Largest fall from a month-end peak
No drawdown at month-ends
Month-ends spent below a prior peak
Best month +20.5%
Consistency and market exposure
- Positive months
- 100%
- Profit factor
- —
- Correlation to BTC
- −0.21
- Beta to BTC
- −0.09
Of 7 months with trades
No losing month in the period
Monthly, vs Bitcoin buy and hold
Return change per 1% Bitcoin move
Live versus backtest
- Live or mixed months
- 2
- Live/mixed average month
- 0.00%
- Backtest average month
- +3.00%
Includes mixed backtest/live months
Mean of live and mixed months
Mean of earlier backtest months
2 live or mixed months are far too few to confirm or reject the backtest; this updates every month.
Month-end figures hide losses inside a month: open positions can be deeper underwater than any monthly number here. Studies potential reversals following unusually one-sided market behaviour.
Month by month
Newest first| Month | Stress Reversion | Bitcoin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 0.00% | −7.24% | live |
| Sep 2026 | 0.00% | +6.40% | backtest + live |
| Aug 2026 | 0.00% | +24.96% | backtest |
| Jul 2026 | 0.00% | +7.26% | backtest |
| Jun 2026 | 0.00% | −20.43% | backtest |
| May 2026 | 0.00% | −3.48% | backtest |
| Apr 2026 | 0.00% | +11.82% | backtest |
| Mar 2026 | 0.00% | +1.95% | backtest |
| Feb 2026 | +5.83% | −14.95% | backtest |
| Jan 2026 | 0.00% | −10.16% | backtest |
| Dec 2025 | 0.00% | −3.00% | backtest |
| Nov 2025 | +0.60% | −17.56% | backtest |
Show 12 earlier months
| Month | Stress Reversion | Bitcoin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | +18.98% | −3.89% | backtest |
| Sep 2025 | 0.00% | +5.34% | backtest |
| Aug 2025 | 0.00% | −6.47% | backtest |
| Jul 2025 | 0.00% | +8.04% | backtest |
| Jun 2025 | 0.00% | +2.43% | backtest |
| May 2025 | 0.00% | +11.07% | backtest |
| Apr 2025 | +5.40% | +14.07% | backtest |
| Mar 2025 | +7.55% | −2.11% | backtest |
| Feb 2025 | +7.22% | −17.66% | backtest |
| Jan 2025 | 0.00% | +9.44% | backtest |
| Dec 2024 | +20.46% | −3.03% | backtest |
| Nov 2024 | 0.00% | +37.19% | backtest |
Research on contrarian markets
Studies of the same market area. They describe the market, not Stress Reversion’s rules.
- Data study · chartsWill Bitcoin go back up? Every crash since 2011 and its recovery timeRead →
- Data studyBuying Bitcoin at extreme fear: Fear & Greed Index evidenceRead →
- Evidence reviewMonth-end vs daily drawdowns: how reporting frequency affects crypto risk metricsRead →
- Data studyAltcoin beta to Bitcoin: BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE hourly returnsRead →
Run Stress Reversion yourself
The rules, sizing and execution notes are shared with approved subscribers. Run it in your own account on a major crypto exchange.