Event-Driven
Event Expectations
An event-driven crypto strategy based on how expectations are reflected in market prices. Activity is uneven, with quiet periods between opportunities.
Apply for Event ExpectationsRisk metricsCompare another strategy
- 12-month return
- +229%
- Sharpe
- 3.36
- Max drawdown
- −2.7%
- Corr. to BTC
- −0.27
24 months: +288%
Annualised, monthly
Month-end
Beta −0.25
- 1M
- +23.4%
- 3M
- +38.3%
- 6M
- +95.4%
- 12M
- +229%
- 24M
- +288%
- Record
- 1 live · 1 mixed · 22 backtest months
Performance
Live Backtest · Through Oct 2026 · cumulative is on fixed capital (months add).
Performance and risk metrics
Last 24 months (Nov 2024 to Oct 2026), from monthly returns on fixed capital; risk-free rate 0%. Definitions.
Over this 24-month window, Event Expectations returned +229.3% over 12 months and +288.1% over 24 months on fixed capital, with an annualised return of +144.0%, annualised volatility of 42.9%, Sharpe ratio of 3.36, and maximum month-end drawdown of −2.7% (19 active months, 89% positive).
Return and risk
- Annualised return
- +144.0%
- Annualised volatility
- 42.9%
- Sharpe ratio
- 3.36
- Sortino ratio
- n/m
Mean monthly return × 12
Std. dev. of monthly returns × √12
Return per unit of total volatility
Only 2 losing months: too few to measure
Drawdown
- Max drawdown
- −2.7%
- Calmar ratio
- n/m
- Longest drawdown
- 1 month
- Worst month
- −2.7%
Largest fall from a month-end peak
Drawdown too small to measure
Month-ends spent below a prior peak
Best month +40.6%
Consistency and market exposure
- Positive months
- 89%
- Profit factor
- n/m
- Correlation to BTC
- −0.27
- Beta to BTC
- −0.25
Of 19 months with trades
Too few losing months to measure
Monthly, vs Bitcoin buy and hold
Return change per 1% Bitcoin move
Live versus backtest
- Live or mixed months
- 2
- Live/mixed average month
- +14.32%
- Backtest average month
- +11.79%
Includes mixed backtest/live months
Mean of live and mixed months
Mean of earlier backtest months
2 live or mixed months are far too few to confirm or reject the backtest; this updates every month.
Month-end figures hide losses inside a month: open positions can be deeper underwater than any monthly number here. Studies how markets incorporate new information and adjust expectations around events.
Month by month
Newest first| Month | Event Expectations | Bitcoin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | +23.39% | −7.24% | live |
| Sep 2026 | +5.25% | +6.40% | backtest + live |
| Aug 2026 | +9.66% | +24.96% | backtest |
| Jul 2026 | +30.98% | +7.26% | backtest |
| Jun 2026 | +4.43% | −20.43% | backtest |
| May 2026 | +21.68% | −3.48% | backtest |
| Apr 2026 | −2.67% | +11.82% | backtest |
| Mar 2026 | +21.42% | +1.95% | backtest |
| Feb 2026 | +40.60% | −14.95% | backtest |
| Jan 2026 | +15.02% | −10.16% | backtest |
| Dec 2025 | +26.16% | −3.00% | backtest |
| Nov 2025 | +33.34% | −17.56% | backtest |
Show 12 earlier months
| Month | Event Expectations | Bitcoin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | +17.22% | −3.89% | backtest |
| Sep 2025 | +4.71% | +5.34% | backtest |
| Aug 2025 | +6.55% | −6.47% | backtest |
| Jul 2025 | −1.77% | +8.04% | backtest |
| Jun 2025 | +9.73% | +2.43% | backtest |
| May 2025 | +7.46% | +11.07% | backtest |
| Apr 2025 | 0.00% | +14.07% | backtest |
| Mar 2025 | 0.00% | −2.11% | backtest |
| Feb 2025 | 0.00% | −17.66% | backtest |
| Jan 2025 | 0.00% | +9.44% | backtest |
| Dec 2024 | 0.00% | −3.03% | backtest |
| Nov 2024 | +14.93% | +37.19% | backtest |
Research on event-driven markets
Studies of the same market area. They describe the market, not Event Expectations’s rules.
- Data studyDoes crypto news move prices or follow them? A timestamp auditRead →
- Data studyCrypto liquidity and order book depth: a historical data auditRead →
- Data studyDoes high trading volume predict crypto volatility? 41 coins testedRead →
- Data studyCrypto listing and delisting effects: an OKX price studyRead →
Run Event Expectations yourself
The rules, sizing and execution notes are shared with approved subscribers. Run it in your own account on a major crypto exchange.