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Event-Driven

Event-Driven crypto strategies

Studies how markets incorporate new information and adjust expectations around events. Compare 24-month fixed-capital returns, drawdowns and Bitcoin correlation across 4 systematic event-driven strategies.

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4

Event-Driven strategies

Median Sharpe
3.13

Bitcoin: 0.32

Median corr. to BTC
−0.12

Monthly, last 24 months

Related research
8

Empirical studies

Event-Driven strategy comparison

Click a column to sort. Returns are sums of monthly returns on fixed capital; Bitcoin compounds.

Event-Driven strategy return leaderboard, 2024-11–2026-10; trailing periods up to 24 months. Strategy returns use fixed capital, non-compounded; Bitcoin compounds. Returns and month-end drawdowns are percentages.
Strategy24M trend1M3M12M24MSharpeMax DDCorr. BTC
Event ExpectationsEvent-Driven +23.4%+38.3%+229%+288% 3.36−2.7%−0.27
Event RepricingEvent-Driven +8.1%+55.6%+196%+453% 3.76−0.6%−0.08
Conditional DriftEvent-Driven +2.8%+18.5%+137%+137% 2.230.0%−0.16
Event EchoEvent-Driven −0.5%+28.5%+102%+190% 2.90−14.5%0.18
BitcoinBuy and hold benchmark−7.2%+23.3%−29.2%+10.2%0.32−49.3%1.00

Monthly returns

Each bar is one month. Live Backtest

Event-Driven

Event Expectations

+229%12 months
Nov 2024: +14.9% (backtest)Dec 2024: 0.0% (backtest)Jan 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Feb 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Mar 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Apr 2025: 0.0% (backtest)May 2025: +7.5% (backtest)Jun 2025: +9.7% (backtest)Jul 2025: −1.8% (backtest)Aug 2025: +6.5% (backtest)Sep 2025: +4.7% (backtest)Oct 2025: +17.2% (backtest)Nov 2025: +33.3% (backtest)Dec 2025: +26.2% (backtest)Jan 2026: +15.0% (backtest)Feb 2026: +40.6% (backtest)Mar 2026: +21.4% (backtest)Apr 2026: −2.7% (backtest)May 2026: +21.7% (backtest)Jun 2026: +4.4% (backtest)Jul 2026: +31.0% (backtest)Aug 2026: +9.7% (backtest)Sep 2026: +5.3% (mixed)Oct 2026: +23.4% (live)
Sharpe
3.36
Max DD
−2.7%
Corr. BTC
−0.27

1 live · 1 mixed · 22 backtest months

Event-Driven

Event Repricing

+196%12 months
Nov 2024: +6.7% (backtest)Dec 2024: +24.4% (backtest)Jan 2025: +38.6% (backtest)Feb 2025: +6.9% (backtest)Mar 2025: +41.5% (backtest)Apr 2025: +7.9% (backtest)May 2025: +21.7% (backtest)Jun 2025: +15.4% (backtest)Jul 2025: +7.9% (backtest)Aug 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Sep 2025: +12.7% (backtest)Oct 2025: +73.1% (backtest)Nov 2025: +44.5% (backtest)Dec 2025: +2.2% (backtest)Jan 2026: +33.8% (backtest)Feb 2026: +1.1% (backtest)Mar 2026: −0.6% (backtest)Apr 2026: +21.8% (backtest)May 2026: +14.1% (backtest)Jun 2026: +13.0% (backtest)Jul 2026: +10.6% (backtest)Aug 2026: +23.1% (backtest)Sep 2026: +24.4% (mixed)Oct 2026: +8.1% (live)
Sharpe
3.76
Max DD
−0.6%
Corr. BTC
−0.08

1 live · 1 mixed · 22 backtest months

Event-Driven

Conditional Drift

+137%12 months
Nov 2024: 0.0% (backtest)Dec 2024: 0.0% (backtest)Jan 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Feb 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Mar 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Apr 2025: 0.0% (backtest)May 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Jun 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Jul 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Aug 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Sep 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Oct 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Nov 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Dec 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Jan 2026: +15.3% (backtest)Feb 2026: +16.8% (backtest)Mar 2026: +1.8% (backtest)Apr 2026: +25.2% (backtest)May 2026: +28.2% (backtest)Jun 2026: +19.1% (backtest)Jul 2026: +12.3% (backtest)Aug 2026: +7.9% (backtest)Sep 2026: +7.8% (mixed)Oct 2026: +2.8% (live)
Sharpe
2.23
Max DD
0.0%
Corr. BTC
−0.16

1 live · 1 mixed · 22 backtest months

Event-Driven

Event Echo

+102%12 months
Nov 2024: +16.6% (backtest)Dec 2024: 0.0% (backtest)Jan 2025: 0.0% (backtest)Feb 2025: +14.4% (backtest)Mar 2025: +3.1% (backtest)Apr 2025: +9.6% (backtest)May 2025: +1.6% (backtest)Jun 2025: +8.1% (backtest)Jul 2025: +1.0% (backtest)Aug 2025: −14.5% (backtest)Sep 2025: +24.3% (backtest)Oct 2025: +24.2% (backtest)Nov 2025: +15.8% (backtest)Dec 2025: +1.9% (backtest)Jan 2026: +4.9% (backtest)Feb 2026: 0.0% (backtest)Mar 2026: +9.4% (backtest)Apr 2026: +20.4% (backtest)May 2026: −3.2% (backtest)Jun 2026: +16.1% (backtest)Jul 2026: +8.1% (backtest)Aug 2026: +13.3% (backtest)Sep 2026: +15.6% (mixed)Oct 2026: −0.5% (live)
Sharpe
2.90
Max DD
−14.5%
Corr. BTC
0.18

1 live · 1 mixed · 22 backtest months

Research on event-driven markets

Studies of the same market area. They describe the market, not individual strategy rules.

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