Seasonality
Seasonal Strength
A seasonality crypto strategy based on recurring patterns of relative market strength. Recurring opportunities do not imply consistent positive returns.
Apply for Seasonal StrengthRisk metricsCompare another strategy
- 12-month return
- +73.7%
- Sharpe
- 2.10
- Max drawdown
- −13.8%
- Corr. to BTC
- 0.39
24 months: +178%
Annualised, monthly
Month-end
Beta 0.35
- 1M
- −1.6%
- 3M
- +37.2%
- 6M
- +44.2%
- 12M
- +73.7%
- 24M
- +178%
- Record
- 1 live · 1 mixed · 22 backtest months
Performance
Live Backtest · Through Oct 2026 · cumulative is on fixed capital (months add).
Performance and risk metrics
Last 24 months (Nov 2024 to Oct 2026), from monthly returns on fixed capital; risk-free rate 0%. Definitions.
Over this 24-month window, Seasonal Strength returned +73.7% over 12 months and +177.7% over 24 months on fixed capital, with an annualised return of +88.8%, annualised volatility of 42.4%, Sharpe ratio of 2.10, and maximum month-end drawdown of −13.8% (24 active months, 75% positive).
Return and risk
- Annualised return
- +88.8%
- Annualised volatility
- 42.4%
- Sharpe ratio
- 2.10
- Sortino ratio
- >10
Mean monthly return × 12
Std. dev. of monthly returns × √12
Return per unit of total volatility
Return per unit of downside volatility
Drawdown
- Max drawdown
- −13.8%
- Calmar ratio
- 6.46
- Longest drawdown
- 7 months
- Worst month
- −7.9%
Largest fall from a month-end peak
Annualised return ÷ max drawdown
Month-ends spent below a prior peak
Best month +34.8%
Consistency and market exposure
- Positive months
- 75%
- Profit factor
- >10
- Correlation to BTC
- 0.39
- Beta to BTC
- 0.35
Of 24 months with trades
Sum of gains ÷ sum of losses
Monthly, vs Bitcoin buy and hold
Return change per 1% Bitcoin move
Live versus backtest
- Live or mixed months
- 2
- Live/mixed average month
- +1.20%
- Backtest average month
- +7.97%
Includes mixed backtest/live months
Mean of live and mixed months
Mean of earlier backtest months
2 live or mixed months are far too few to confirm or reject the backtest; this updates every month.
Month-end figures hide losses inside a month: open positions can be deeper underwater than any monthly number here. Studies recurring patterns in returns through the lens of calendar effects and market cycles.
Month by month
Newest first| Month | Seasonal Strength | Bitcoin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | −1.59% | −7.24% | live |
| Sep 2026 | +3.98% | +6.40% | backtest + live |
| Aug 2026 | +34.76% | +24.96% | backtest |
| Jul 2026 | +2.16% | +7.26% | backtest |
| Jun 2026 | +5.18% | −20.43% | backtest |
| May 2026 | −0.34% | −3.48% | backtest |
| Apr 2026 | −1.21% | +11.82% | backtest |
| Mar 2026 | +7.30% | +1.95% | backtest |
| Feb 2026 | +10.04% | −14.95% | backtest |
| Jan 2026 | +3.54% | −10.16% | backtest |
| Dec 2025 | +7.34% | −3.00% | backtest |
| Nov 2025 | +2.49% | −17.56% | backtest |
Show 12 earlier months
| Month | Seasonal Strength | Bitcoin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | +26.36% | −3.89% | backtest |
| Sep 2025 | +7.16% | +5.34% | backtest |
| Aug 2025 | +34.78% | −6.47% | backtest |
| Jul 2025 | +0.52% | +8.04% | backtest |
| Jun 2025 | +0.93% | +2.43% | backtest |
| May 2025 | −0.45% | +11.07% | backtest |
| Apr 2025 | +9.30% | +14.07% | backtest |
| Mar 2025 | +1.88% | −2.11% | backtest |
| Feb 2025 | −7.95% | −17.66% | backtest |
| Jan 2025 | −5.81% | +9.44% | backtest |
| Dec 2024 | +4.00% | −3.03% | backtest |
| Nov 2024 | +33.29% | +37.19% | backtest |
Research on seasonality markets
Studies of the same market area. They describe the market, not Seasonal Strength’s rules.
- Data study · chartsBest time to trade crypto: volatility by hour and time zoneRead →
- Data studyBitcoin CME gap: does it always fill? Weekend data since 2019Read →
- Data studyUptober and crypto seasonality: Bitcoin by month and weekdayRead →
- Data studyCrypto liquidity and order book depth: a historical data auditRead →
Run Seasonal Strength yourself
The rules, sizing and execution notes are shared with approved subscribers. Run it in your own account on a major crypto exchange.