SOLはなぜ5分で1.59%下落したのか？根拠・市場データ検証 · 2026-10-20
SOLはGate · USDTの5分観測区間で-1.59%変動しました。原因は未確定であり、周辺の報道は因果関係を証明しません。
価格変動は市場の観測結果であり、報道の裏付けではありません。
価格がアラート閾値を突破 · 市場全体と連動
時間ウィンドウ経過
3つの独立したルールベース指標であり、報道の真偽確率ではありません。 仕組みを見る →
Key facts
Nearby report sources (context, not confirmed causes): No matching source available
SOLは5分間で-1.59%変動しました（20/10/2026, 15:09〜20/10/2026, 15:14, UTC; Gate · USDT）。原因は未確定です。
On the OKX perpetual swap SOL-USDT-SWAP around the alert: funding rate +0.0057% per period; open interest -1.92% (20/10/2026, 15:05 → 20/10/2026, 15:15); liquidations $373,243 long / $0 short (UTC). These are conditions that accompanied the move, not its cause.
SOL 検知後の価格反応
- 5分-0.16%vs BTC -0.24 pt
- 1時間+0.64%vs BTC +0.29 pt
- 24時間+2.63%vs BTC -0.17 pt
The unusual move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 5 minute return | -1.59% |
| BTC over the same interval | -0.92% |
| Difference from BTC | -0.67 pt |
| OKX無期限先物ファンディング率（期間あたり） | 0.0057% OKX · SOL-USDT-SWAP · sampled 20/10/2026, 15:17 (UTC) · 収集時点で観測されたレートであり、年율換算利回りや確定決済値ではありません。 |
| OKX無期限先物建玉（OI）変化率 | -1.92% OKX · SOL-USDT-SWAP · sampled 20/10/2026, 15:17 (UTC) · 20/10/2026, 15:05 → 20/10/2026, 15:15 (UTC) · 建玉はドル換算額ではなくコイン数量ベースで計測。 |
| 観測されたロング清算額 | $373,243 OKX · SOL-USDT-SWAP · sampled 20/10/2026, 15:17 (UTC) · 20/10/2026, 15:09 → 20/10/2026, 15:15 (UTC) · API取得レコードはこの観測区間をカバーしています（市場全体の合計ではありません）。 |
| 観測されたショート清算額 | $0 OKX · SOL-USDT-SWAP · sampled 20/10/2026, 15:17 (UTC) · 20/10/2026, 15:09 → 20/10/2026, 15:15 (UTC) · API取得レコードはこの観測区間をカバーしています（市場全体の合計ではありません）。 |
| Detection threshold | 1.50% |
| Actual interval (UTC) | 20/10/2026, 15:09 → 20/10/2026, 15:14 |
| Sampled prices / source | 107.08 → 105.38 · Gate · USDT |
Minute samples show an observed interval, not the exact onset of a move. These heuristic thresholds are not calibrated probabilities. No minute-volume claim is made.
What might explain it?
No sufficiently supported cause has been established. Nearby reports are context, not confirmed causes.
No nearby reports were available to explain this move, so no written explanation was generated. Market data remains available.
Nearby reports and timing
Research: announcement timestamps and causality →
No matching reports in the monitored sources and time window. Coverage is incomplete.
Source evidence · no linked reports
No source claim linked yet. Market observations are recorded separately.
Original source titles remain in their source language. Full articles are not republished.
Market reaction after detection
Returns start at the sample closest to site detection (within the same minute up to 10 minutes later), using the same data source and quote currency. Actual sample times are shown; missing observations remain blank.
| Window | Return | BTC | Difference from BTC (pp) | Actual sampled interval / source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5分 | -0.16% | +0.08% | -0.24 pt | 20/10/2026, 15:15 → 20/10/2026, 15:21 (UTC) Gate · USDT |
| 1時間 | +0.64% | +0.34% | +0.29 pt | 20/10/2026, 15:15 → 20/10/2026, 16:16 (UTC) Gate · USDT |
| 24時間 | +2.63% | +2.80% | -0.17 pt | 20/10/2026, 15:15 → 21/10/2026, 15:15 (UTC) Gate · USDT |
Historical market context · baseline not ready
Research: hourly returns and BTC beta →
Closed hourly candles from the 30 days before this event observation. Different venues are kept separate.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Hourly coverage | 0.0% (0/720) |
| Median absolute 1h return | — |
| 99th percentile of absolute 1h returns | — |
| Historical hourly BTC beta | — (0 matched returns) |
Gate · USDT · Context as of 20/10/2026, 15:14 · Last included candle closed データなし
Hourly descriptive statistics, not minute-move probabilities. Backfilled history never moves the observation cutoff above.
Event timeline
Source publication, receipt and analysis times are separate. All times UTC.
Price window begins
Price threshold observed
Event first detected by this site
Unusual-move data flash published
Latest content update
Recent SOL events and market reactions
公開基準を満たした他のSOLイベントはまだありません。
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